UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Saturday, June 7, 2025·Newark, New Jersey, USA
Model Record: 11/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightHIT
Merab Dvalishvili won by Submission (R3)
Dvalishvili 67%33% O'Malley
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +181(favors Dvalishvili)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors O'Malley)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.1(favors Dvalishvili)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Kayla Harrison won by Submission (R2)
Harrison 61%39% Pena
LEAN
→Elo gap: -178(favors Pena)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Harrison)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Harrison)
MiddleweightHIT
Joe Pyfer won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pyfer 54%46% Gastelum
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Pyfer)
BantamweightHIT
Mario Bautista won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bautista 72%28% Mix
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +544(favors Bautista)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.4(favors Bautista)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Bautista)
WelterweightMISS
Kevin Holland won by Submission (R2)
Holland 46%54% Luque
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -144(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Luque)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Luque)
FlyweightHIT
Joshua Van won by KO/TKO (R3)
Van 78%22% Silva
STRONG
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +96(favors Van)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Van)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Van)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Azamat Murzakanov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Murzakanov 61%39% Ribeiro
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +428(favors Murzakanov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Murzakanov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Ribeiro)
HeavyweightHIT
Waldo Cortes Acosta won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Acosta 53%47% Spivac
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -68(favors Spivac)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Acosta)
→Takedown rate advantage: -7.0(favors Spivac)
WelterweightMISS
Andreas Gustafsson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gustafsson 28%72% Williams
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -303(favors Williams)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.5(favors Williams)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Williams)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Wang Cong won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cong 53%47% Silva
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -38(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Cong)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Cong)
FeatherweightHIT
JooSang Yoo won by KO/TKO (R1)
Yoo 59%41% Saragih
LEAN
→Elo gap: +117(favors Yoo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Saragih)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Saragih)
LightweightHIT
Quillan Salkilld won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Salkilld 64%36% Ashmouz
LEAN
→Elo gap: -10(favors Ashmouz)
→Striking volume advantage: +16.0(favors Salkilld)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.8(favors Ashmouz)
LightweightHIT
MarQuel Mederos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mederos 64%36% Choinski
LEAN
→Elo gap: +113(favors Mederos)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Mederos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Choinski)