UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Pettis (10-9) taking on Stephen Thompson (12-8-1). Thompson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Pettis is rated at 1512 — 183 points above Thompson's 1329. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pettis's wrestler game against Thompson's striker approach. Pettis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Thompson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Thompson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephen Thompson over Anthony Pettis. The model is firm on this one: Thompson at 78%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Curtis Blaydes (13-5) taking on Justin Willis (4-0). Blaydes is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Blaydes is rated at 1634 — 379 points above Willis's 1256. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Willis has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Willis throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Willis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Justin Willis. The model is firm on this one: Blaydes at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Blaydes at 71% implied while our model sees 77% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features John Makdessi (11-8) taking on Jesus Pinedo (1-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Makdessi at 989, Pinedo at 1015. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pinedo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Makdessi over Jesus Pinedo. We're leaning Makdessi here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 73% for Makdessi, but our model sees only 70%. That 3-point gap favoring Pinedo is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Jussier Formiga (9-6) taking on Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1).

Figueiredo is rated at 1490 — 341 points above Formiga's 1149. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Formiga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Figueiredo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Formiga the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Figueiredo throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Formiga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo over Jussier Formiga. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Figueiredo at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Formiga at 42% implied while our model sees 46% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Luis Pena (4-3) taking on Steven Peterson (3-4). Pena is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Pena is rated at 1146 — 226 points above Peterson's 920. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pena looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Peterson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pena the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Peterson throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Peterson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luis Pena over Steven Peterson. We're leaning Pena here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Maycee Barber (9-2) taking on JJ Aldrich (9-6).

Barber is rated at 1543 — 464 points above Aldrich's 1079. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barber rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barber throws significantly more leather — a 6.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Barber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Aldrich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maycee Barber over JJ Aldrich. We're leaning Barber here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Bryce Mitchell (8-3) taking on Bobby Moffett (0-1). Moffett will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mitchell is rated at 1355 — 453 points above Moffett's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moffett throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Mitchell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryce Mitchell over Bobby Moffett. The model gives Mitchell a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Mitchell at 42% implied while our model sees 64% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-9) taking on Frankie Saenz (5-4). Vera is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Vera is rated at 1460 — 572 points above Saenz's 888. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Vera's wrestler game against Saenz's striker approach. Vera looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Saenz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Saenz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Saenz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marlon Vera over Frankie Saenz. The model is firm on this one: Vera at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Vera at 61% implied while our model sees 76% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jennifer Maia (6-5) taking on Alexis Davis (7-6). Davis is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Maia is rated at 1193 — 163 points above Davis's 1030. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Maia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Davis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jennifer Maia over Alexis Davis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Maia at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Maia at 42% implied while our model sees 52% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Randa Markos (6-10-1) taking on Angela Hill (13-15).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hill at 1074 versus Markos at 974. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Markos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randa Markos over Angela Hill. The model gives Markos a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Markos at 43% implied while our model sees 59% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Gutierrez (10-3-1) taking on Ryan MacDonald (0-1). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gutierrez is rated at 1298 — 511 points above MacDonald's 787. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gutierrez throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. MacDonald has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Gutierrez over Ryan MacDonald. The model is firm on this one: Gutierrez at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Gutierrez at 71% implied while our model sees 77% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Jordan Espinosa (2-3) taking on Eric Shelton (2-3).

Shelton carries a modest Elo edge (921 to 864), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Espinosa's striker game against Shelton's wrestler approach. Espinosa brings a versatile approach, while Shelton looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shelton throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Shelton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Espinosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eric Shelton over Jordan Espinosa. The model gives Shelton a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 42% for Espinosa, but our model sees only 37%. That 5-point gap favoring Shelton is worth watching.