UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Anthony Smith (13-11). Jones will look to use a 8-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 1091 points above Smith's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Jones's all-rounder game against Smith's knockout artist approach. Jones is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Smith is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Jones over Anthony Smith. The model is firm on this one: Jones at 95%. Notably, the betting market has Jones at 86% implied while our model sees 95% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight championship matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Tyron Woodley (9-5-1). Usman is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Usman is rated at 1828 — 367 points above Woodley's 1461. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Usman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Woodley is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Usman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Usman throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Usman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Woodley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyron Woodley over Kamaru Usman. The model gives Woodley a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Ben Askren (1-1) taking on Robbie Lawler (14-10).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lawler at 1297 versus Askren at 1177. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawler throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Askren has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ben Askren over Robbie Lawler. We're leaning Askren here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Zhang Weili (10-2) taking on Tecia Pennington (11-7). Weili is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Weili is rated at 1649 — 443 points above Pennington's 1206. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Weili rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Weili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Weili the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weili throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Weili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Weili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zhang Weili over Tecia Pennington. The model gives Weili a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Pedro Munhoz (10-9) taking on Cody Garbrandt (9-6).

Munhoz carries a modest Elo edge (1211 to 1155), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Munhoz is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Garbrandt brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Munhoz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Munhoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Garbrandt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Garbrandt over Pedro Munhoz. The model gives Garbrandt a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Munhoz at 40% implied while our model sees 43% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Zabit Magomedsharipov (5-0) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18). Magomedsharipov is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Magomedsharipov is rated at 1494 — 553 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Magomedsharipov rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Magomedsharipov's wrestler game against Stephens's striker approach. Magomedsharipov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stephens brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Magomedsharipov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.2 more per 15 minutes. Magomedsharipov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zabit Magomedsharipov over Jeremy Stephens. The model is firm on this one: Magomedsharipov at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Magomedsharipov at 73% implied while our model sees 81% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Johnny Walker (7-6) taking on Misha Cirkunov (6-6). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Walker is rated at 1432 — 565 points above Cirkunov's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Walker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cirkunov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Walker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cirkunov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Walker over Misha Cirkunov. We're leaning Walker here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Walker at 62% implied while our model sees 66% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Stamann (7-6-1) taking on Alejandro Perez (8-3-1). Perez will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Perez at 1082 versus Stamann at 932. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stamann throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Stamann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Stamann over Alejandro Perez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stamann at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Stamann, but our model sees only 53%. That 9-point gap favoring Perez is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Mickey Gall (6-6). Gall is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 379 points above Gall's 760. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's striker game against Gall's submission artist approach. Sanchez brings a versatile approach, while Gall is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mickey Gall over Diego Sanchez. We're leaning Gall here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 32% for Sanchez, but our model sees only 27%. That 5-point gap favoring Gall is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Edmen Shahbazyan (8-5) taking on Charles Byrd (1-2). Shahbazyan is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Shahbazyan is rated at 1314 — 573 points above Byrd's 741. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Byrd throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Shahbazyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. Byrd has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan over Charles Byrd. The model is firm on this one: Shahbazyan at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Shahbazyan at 59% implied while our model sees 75% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Macy Chiasson (8-4) taking on Gina Mazany (2-5). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Chiasson is rated at 1145 — 449 points above Mazany's 696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chiasson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Mazany is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Chiasson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Macy Chiasson over Gina Mazany. The model is firm on this one: Chiasson at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Hannah Cifers (2-4) taking on Polyana Viana (4-6). Viana is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Viana is rated at 868 — 178 points above Cifers's 690. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cifers's knockout artist game against Viana's wrestler approach. Cifers is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Viana looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cifers throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Viana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Viana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Polyana Viana over Hannah Cifers. The model is firm on this one: Viana at 80%. The market implies 28% for Cifers, but our model sees only 20%. That 8-point gap favoring Viana is worth watching.