UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Israel Adesanya (13-4) taking on Anderson Silva (17-6). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Adesanya is rated at 1559 — 405 points above Silva's 1154. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Adesanya's striker game against Silva's all-rounder approach. Adesanya brings a versatile approach, while Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Adesanya throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Adesanya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Israel Adesanya over Anderson Silva. The model is firm on this one: Adesanya at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Adesanya at 81% implied while our model sees 91% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Lando Vannata (4-6-2) taking on Marcos Mariano (0-1). Mariano is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Vannata carries a modest Elo edge (898 to 841), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vannata throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Vannata is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Mariano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lando Vannata over Marcos Mariano. The model is firm on this one: Vannata at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Vannata at 79% implied while our model sees 89% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricky Simon (10-5) taking on Rani Yahya (13-5-1).

Simon is rated at 1223 — 194 points above Yahya's 1030. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Simon is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Yahya looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Yahya the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yahya throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Simon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Simon over Rani Yahya. We're leaning Simon here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Simon at 49% implied while our model sees 68% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Montana De La Rosa (5-5-1) taking on Nadia Kassem (1-1). Rosa is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Rosa is rated at 1036 — 175 points above Kassem's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kassem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Montana De La Rosa over Nadia Kassem. We're leaning Rosa here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Rosa at 69% implied while our model sees 73% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimmy Crute (5-4-2) taking on Sam Alvey (10-12-1).

Crute is rated at 1151 — 416 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Crute's wrestler game against Alvey's knockout artist approach. Crute looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alvey is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Crute is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Alvey over Jimmy Crute. We're leaning Alvey here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Devonte Smith (3-2) taking on Dong Hyun Ma (3-4). Smith will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Smith carries a modest Elo edge (869 to 838), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Smith is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Ma brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Smith the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 13.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ma is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Ma has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Devonte Smith over Dong Hyun Ma. We're leaning Smith here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Shane Young (2-4) taking on Austin Arnett (1-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Arnett.

There's a real Elo separation here: Arnett at 881 versus Young at 742. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Young throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Young is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Arnett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shane Young over Austin Arnett. The model is firm on this one: Young at 79%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Kai Kara-France (8-4) taking on Raulian Paiva (3-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Paiva.

Kara-France is rated at 1351 — 344 points above Paiva's 1007. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kara-France throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Paiva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Paiva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kai Kara-France over Raulian Paiva. We're leaning Kara-France here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyung Ho Kang (8-4) taking on Teruto Ishihara (3-4-1). Kang is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Kang is rated at 1029 — 212 points above Ishihara's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Kang's wrestler game against Ishihara's striker approach. Kang looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ishihara brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kang throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Kang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyung Ho Kang over Teruto Ishihara. We're leaning Kang here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 76% for Kang, but our model sees only 69%. That 7-point gap favoring Ishihara is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Jalin Turner (7-6) taking on Callan Potter (1-1). Turner is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Turner is rated at 1393 — 490 points above Potter's 903. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turner throws significantly more leather — a 8.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Potter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Potter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jalin Turner over Callan Potter. The model is firm on this one: Turner at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Turner at 68% implied while our model sees 84% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jonathan Martinez (10-4) taking on Wulijiburen (0-2).

Martinez is rated at 1343 — 587 points above Wulijiburen's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Wulijiburen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Wulijiburen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Martinez over Wulijiburen. The model gives Martinez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.