UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Alexander Gustafsson (10-7). Jones will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 992 points above Gustafsson's 1169. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gustafsson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Jones over Alexander Gustafsson. The model is firm on this one: Jones at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Jones at 73% implied while our model sees 77% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Amanda Nunes (15-2) taking on Cristiane Justino (5-1).

Nunes is rated at 1636 — 274 points above Justino's 1362. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nunes's all-rounder game against Justino's striker approach. Nunes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Justino brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Justino throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Justino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Nunes over Cristiane Justino. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nunes at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Nunes at 36% implied while our model sees 51% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (13-7) taking on Carlos Condit (9-9).

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 325 points above Condit's 1165. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Chiesa's wrestler game against Condit's knockout artist approach. Chiesa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Condit is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Condit throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Condit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Carlos Condit. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Chiesa at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Corey Anderson (10-4) taking on Ilir Latifi (9-6). Anderson is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Anderson is rated at 1459 — 264 points above Latifi's 1195. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Anderson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Anderson's striker game against Latifi's submission artist approach. Anderson brings a versatile approach, while Latifi is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Anderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Corey Anderson over Ilir Latifi. The model is firm on this one: Anderson at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Anderson at 46% implied while our model sees 79% — a 33-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (14-3) taking on Chad Mendes (9-4). Volkanovski will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Volkanovski is rated at 1824 — 447 points above Mendes's 1377. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Volkanovski's wrestler game against Mendes's striker approach. Volkanovski looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Mendes brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkanovski throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkanovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkanovski over Chad Mendes. We're leaning Volkanovski here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Walt Harris (6-8).

Harris is rated at 1133 — 276 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Arlovski's all-rounder game against Harris's striker approach. Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Harris brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Harris throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Arlovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Walt Harris over Andrei Arlovski. The model is firm on this one: Harris at 75%. The market implies 34% for Arlovski, but our model sees only 25%. That 10-point gap favoring Harris is worth watching.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Megan Anderson (3-2) taking on Cat Zingano (3-3). Anderson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Anderson is rated at 1187 — 180 points above Zingano's 1008. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Anderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Zingano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Zingano the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zingano throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Zingano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Zingano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Megan Anderson over Cat Zingano. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Anderson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Anderson at 46% implied while our model sees 51% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Petr Yan (11-4) taking on Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-5).

Yan is rated at 1869 — 724 points above Andrade's 1146. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Yan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yan throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Yan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over Douglas Silva de Andrade. The model is firm on this one: Yan at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Yan at 75% implied while our model sees 80% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Ryan Hall (4-1) taking on BJ Penn (12-12-2).

Hall is rated at 1214 — 277 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Hall over BJ Penn. The model is firm on this one: Hall at 75%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Nathaniel Wood (9-3) taking on Andre Ewell (4-4). Ewell is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Wood is rated at 1389 — 523 points above Ewell's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ewell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Wood has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nathaniel Wood over Andre Ewell. The model gives Wood a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Wood at 53% implied while our model sees 61% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Uriah Hall (10-8) taking on Bevon Lewis (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Lewis.

Hall is rated at 1378 — 477 points above Lewis's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lewis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uriah Hall over Bevon Lewis. The model gives Hall a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Curtis Millender (3-1) taking on Siyar Bahadurzada (4-3). Millender is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Millender at 1185 versus Bahadurzada at 1086. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Millender throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bahadurzada is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Millender has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Curtis Millender over Siyar Bahadurzada. The model gives Millender a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Montel Jackson (9-2) taking on Brian Kelleher (8-8). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Jackson is rated at 1448 — 682 points above Kelleher's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jackson rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jackson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Kelleher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jackson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelleher throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Kelleher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Montel Jackson over Brian Kelleher. The model gives Jackson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Jackson, but our model sees only 59%. That 3-point gap favoring Kelleher is worth watching.