UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Yair Rodriguez (10-4) taking on Chan Sung Jung (7-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Rodriguez.

Rodriguez carries a modest Elo edge (1559 to 1528), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's all-rounder game against Jung's knockout artist approach. Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jung is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jung is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Jung has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yair Rodriguez over Chan Sung Jung. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rodriguez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Mike Perry (7-7). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Cerrone at 1054, Perry at 1066. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Cerrone's all-rounder game against Perry's striker approach. Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Perry brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Perry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Perry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Perry over Donald Cerrone. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Perry at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Cerrone at 36% implied while our model sees 50% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Germaine de Randamie (7-2) taking on Raquel Pennington (13-5). Randamie is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Pennington carries a modest Elo edge (1411 to 1341), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Pennington has won 6 straight.

Stylistically this is Randamie's striker game against Pennington's wrestler approach. Randamie brings a versatile approach, while Pennington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Randamie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Germaine de Randamie over Raquel Pennington. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Randamie at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 67% for Randamie, but our model sees only 53%. That 14-point gap favoring Pennington is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Thiago Moises (8-6).

Dariush is rated at 1437 — 313 points above Moises's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dariush is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Moises looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Moises the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dariush throws significantly more leather — a 5.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Moises is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Moises has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Thiago Moises. We're leaning Dariush here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Dariush at 59% implied while our model sees 65% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Maycee Barber (9-2) taking on Hannah Cifers (2-4). Barber is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Barber is rated at 1543 — 854 points above Cifers's 690. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barber rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Barber brings a versatile approach, while Cifers is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Cifers the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cifers throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cifers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cifers has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maycee Barber over Hannah Cifers. The model is firm on this one: Barber at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Barber at 80% implied while our model sees 90% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Trizano (3-3) taking on Luis Pena (4-3). Pena is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Pena carries a modest Elo edge (1146 to 1073), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Trizano is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pena looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pena the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trizano throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Trizano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Trizano over Luis Pena. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Trizano at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Ashley Yoder (3-7) taking on Amanda Cooper (2-3). Yoder is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Cooper carries a modest Elo edge (803 to 766), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Yoder is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cooper looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cooper the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cooper throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Yoder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yoder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Cooper over Ashley Yoder. The model gives Cooper a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 57% for Yoder, but our model sees only 44%. That 13-point gap favoring Cooper is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Chas Skelly (7-3) taking on Bobby Moffett (0-1).

Skelly is rated at 1251 — 350 points above Moffett's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Skelly throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Skelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Moffett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bobby Moffett over Chas Skelly. The model gives Moffett a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Skelly, but our model sees only 36%. That 12-point gap favoring Moffett is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Davi Ramos (4-2) taking on John Gunther (1-0). Gunther is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ramos at 1160 versus Gunther at 1023. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gunther is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Davi Ramos over John Gunther. The model is firm on this one: Ramos at 89%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Devonte Smith (3-2) taking on Julian Erosa (9-7). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Erosa.

Erosa is rated at 1280 — 411 points above Smith's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Erosa has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erosa throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Erosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Devonte Smith over Julian Erosa. The model is firm on this one: Smith at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Smith at 68% implied while our model sees 76% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Eric Shelton (2-3) taking on Joseph Morales (2-2).

Morales is rated at 1149 — 228 points above Shelton's 921. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shelton throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Shelton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Shelton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eric Shelton over Joseph Morales. The model gives Shelton a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mark De La Rosa (2-4) taking on Joby Sanchez (1-3). Sanchez will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rosa at 736, Sanchez at 731. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark De La Rosa over Joby Sanchez. The model gives Rosa a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.