UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Saturday, May 17, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Michael Morales won by KO/TKO (R1)
Morales 70%30% Burns
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +105(favors Morales)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Burns)
LightweightHIT
Mairon Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 61%39% Yusuff
LEAN
→Elo gap: -41(favors Yusuff)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Yusuff)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Yusuff)
MiddleweightHIT
Nursulton Ruziboev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ruziboev 54%46% Stoltzfus
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +205(favors Ruziboev)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Stoltzfus)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Stoltzfus)
FeatherweightHIT
Melquizael Costa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Costa 55%45% Erosa
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -63(favors Erosa)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Erosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Costa)
LightweightMISS
Gabe Green won by Submission (R2)
Green 46%54% Camilo
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -41(favors Camilo)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.3(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Green)
LightweightMISS
Jared Gordon won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gordon 40%60% Moises
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +34(favors Gordon)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Moises)
FeatherweightHIT
Yadier del Valle won by Submission (R1)
Valle 54%46% Matthews
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +252(favors Valle)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.0(favors Matthews)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Matthews)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Luana Santos won by Submission (R2)
Santos 75%25% Lisboa
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -40(favors Lisboa)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Lisboa)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Denise Gomes won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gomes 62%38% Reed
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +255(favors Gomes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Gomes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Gomes)
FlyweightMISS
HyunSung Park won by Submission (R1)
Park 48%52% Hernandez
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +163(favors Park)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Park)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Hernandez)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Tecia Pennington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pennington 50%50% Pinheiro
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +336(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Pinheiro)