UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-7) taking on Blagoy Ivanov (3-4). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Santos carries a modest Elo edge (1191 to 1148), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Ivanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Blagoy Ivanov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Sage Northcutt (5-2) taking on Zak Ottow (4-3).

Northcutt is rated at 1249 — 286 points above Ottow's 963. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Northcutt throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Northcutt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Northcutt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sage Northcutt over Zak Ottow. We're leaning Northcutt here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Northcutt at 56% implied while our model sees 67% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricky Glenn (4-5-1) taking on Dennis Bermudez (9-7). Glenn is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Bermudez is rated at 1068 — 182 points above Glenn's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Glenn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bermudez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bermudez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Bermudez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Glenn over Dennis Bermudez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Glenn at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Niko Price (8-9) taking on Randy Brown (14-6). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1381 — 565 points above Price's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Price is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brown looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brown the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Price has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Brown over Niko Price. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brown at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Price at 46% implied while our model sees 49% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Chad Mendes (9-4) taking on Myles Jury (8-3). Jury is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Mendes is rated at 1377 — 236 points above Jury's 1141. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Mendes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jury is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mendes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mendes throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Jury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Myles Jury over Chad Mendes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jury at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Mendes, but our model sees only 45%. That 15-point gap favoring Jury is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Cat Zingano (3-3) taking on Marion Reneau (5-6-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Zingano at 1008 versus Reneau at 878. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reneau throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Zingano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Reneau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cat Zingano over Marion Reneau. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Zingano at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alejandro Perez (8-3-1) taking on Eddie Wineland (6-9).

Perez is rated at 1082 — 216 points above Wineland's 865. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Wineland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alejandro Perez over Eddie Wineland. The model gives Perez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (14-3) taking on Darren Elkins (19-10). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Elkins.

Volkanovski is rated at 1824 — 711 points above Elkins's 1113. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Volkanovski's striker game against Elkins's wrestler approach. Volkanovski brings a versatile approach, while Elkins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkanovski throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkanovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkanovski over Darren Elkins. The model gives Volkanovski a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Said Nurmagomedov (7-3) taking on Justin Scoggins (4-4). Nurmagomedov will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1181 — 320 points above Scoggins's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nurmagomedov's wrestler game against Scoggins's striker approach. Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Scoggins brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Scoggins throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Scoggins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Said Nurmagomedov over Justin Scoggins. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nurmagomedov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Raoni Barcelos (9-4) taking on Kurt Holobaugh (2-6). Holobaugh is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Barcelos is rated at 1410 — 578 points above Holobaugh's 833. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barcelos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Barcelos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Holobaugh is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Barcelos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holobaugh throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Holobaugh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Barcelos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kurt Holobaugh over Raoni Barcelos. The model gives Holobaugh a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Barcelos at 39% implied while our model sees 45% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Liz Carmouche (5-4) taking on Jennifer Maia (6-5). Carmouche is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Maia carries a modest Elo edge (1193 to 1127), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Carmouche's striker game against Maia's all-rounder approach. Carmouche brings a versatile approach, while Maia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carmouche throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmouche is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Liz Carmouche over Jennifer Maia. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Carmouche at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Mark De La Rosa (2-4) taking on Elias Garcia (0-1).

Garcia carries a modest Elo edge (801 to 736), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark De La Rosa over Elias Garcia. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rosa at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Aguilar (1-3) taking on Jodie Esquibel (0-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Aguilar at 827 versus Esquibel at 708. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Esquibel throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Aguilar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Esquibel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jodie Esquibel over Jessica Aguilar. The model gives Esquibel a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.