UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (13-10) taking on Michael Bisping (20-8). Bisping is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 182 points above Gastelum's 1340. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gastelum is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Bisping brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Gastelum the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gastelum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Michael Bisping. We're leaning Gastelum here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Li Jingliang (11-6) taking on Zak Ottow (4-3).

Jingliang is rated at 1270 — 307 points above Ottow's 963. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jingliang's striker game against Ottow's all-rounder approach. Jingliang brings a versatile approach, while Ottow is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jingliang throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jingliang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Jingliang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Li Jingliang over Zak Ottow. We're leaning Jingliang here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Wang Guan (0-0) taking on Alex Caceres (16-12).

There's a real Elo separation here: Caceres at 1232 versus Guan at 1091. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Guan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Wang Guan. The model gives Caceres a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 43% for Guan, but our model sees only 36%. That 7-point gap favoring Caceres is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Garcia (5-4) taking on Muslim Salikhov (9-4).

Salikhov is rated at 1183 — 176 points above Garcia's 1006. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Salikhov has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Salikhov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muslim Salikhov over Alex Garcia. We're leaning Salikhov here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Zabit Magomedsharipov (5-0) taking on Sheymon Moraes (2-2). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Magomedsharipov.

Magomedsharipov is rated at 1494 — 518 points above Moraes's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Magomedsharipov rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedsharipov throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Magomedsharipov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Moraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zabit Magomedsharipov over Sheymon Moraes. We're leaning Magomedsharipov here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Song Kenan (6-4) taking on Bobby Nash (0-2). Nash will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Kenan is rated at 1007 — 260 points above Nash's 747. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nash throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nash is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Kenan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bobby Nash over Song Kenan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nash at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Yan Xiaonan (9-3) taking on Kailin Curran (1-5).

Xiaonan is rated at 1412 — 677 points above Curran's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Xiaonan's striker game against Curran's wrestler approach. Xiaonan brings a versatile approach, while Curran looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curran throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Curran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Xiaonan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yan Xiaonan over Kailin Curran. The model gives Xiaonan a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Song Yadong (11-3-1) taking on Bharat Kandare (0-0). Kandare will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Yadong is rated at 1548 — 658 points above Kandare's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kandare throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kandare is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kandare has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Song Yadong over Bharat Kandare. The model gives Yadong a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shamil Abdurakhimov (5-5) taking on Chase Sherman (4-10).

Abdurakhimov is rated at 1018 — 196 points above Sherman's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sherman throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Abdurakhimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Abdurakhimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Sherman over Shamil Abdurakhimov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sherman at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Abdurakhimov, but our model sees only 47%. That 7-point gap favoring Sherman is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Gina Mazany (2-5) taking on Wu Yanan (1-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Mazany at 696, Yanan at 703. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yanan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yanan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yanan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wu Yanan over Gina Mazany. The model gives Yanan a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Rolando Dy (1-2) taking on Wulijiburen (0-2).

Dy carries a modest Elo edge (813 to 756), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dy throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Wulijiburen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wulijiburen over Rolando Dy. We're leaning Wulijiburen here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cyril Asker (2-2) taking on Hu Yaozong (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Yaozong.

Asker is rated at 904 — 208 points above Yaozong's 696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Asker throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Asker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Yaozong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cyril Asker over Hu Yaozong. The model gives Asker a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 69% for Asker, but our model sees only 64%. That 5-point gap favoring Yaozong is worth watching.