UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
Saturday, October 28, 2017·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightHIT
Derek Brunson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brunson 70%30% Machida
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+8.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +108(favors Brunson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Brunson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Brunson)
WelterweightHIT
Colby Covington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Covington 65%35% Maia
CONFIDENTMarket: 55% (+10.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -239(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Covington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.7(favors Covington)
BantamweightHIT
Pedro Munhoz won by Submission (R1)
Munhoz 52%48% Font
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+15.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -17(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Munhoz)
LightweightMISS
Francisco Trinaldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Trinaldo 49%51% Miller
TOSS-UPMarket: 63% (-14.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +142(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Trinaldo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Miller)
MiddleweightMISS
Thiago Santos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Santos 46%54% Hermansson
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+2.6% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Hermansson)
BantamweightHIT
John Lineker won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lineker 83%17% Vera
STRONGMarket: 79% (+3.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +213(favors Lineker)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Lineker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Vera)
WelterweightMISS
Vicente Luque won by Submission (R2)
Luque 49%51% Price
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-7.8% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -65(favors Price)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Luque)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Luque)
MiddleweightHIT
Antonio Carlos Junior won by Submission (R1)
Junior 79%21% Marshman
STRONG
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +163(favors Junior)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Marshman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.2(favors Junior)
LightweightHIT
Jared Gordon won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gordon 69%31% Dias
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+9.7% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +82(favors Gordon)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.6(favors Gordon)
WelterweightHIT
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 67%33% Griffin
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+3.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +191(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Santos)
FlyweightHIT
Deiveson Figueiredo won by Decision - Split (R3)
Figueiredo 57%43% Brooks
LEANMarket: 37% (+19.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +99(favors Figueiredo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Brooks)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Brooks)
HeavyweightHIT
Marcelo Golm won by Submission (R1)
Golm 64%36% Colombo
LEANMarket: 62% (+2.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +109(favors Golm)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Colombo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Colombo)