UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (14-3) taking on Diego Lopes (6-2). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Lopes.

Volkanovski is rated at 1824 — 210 points above Lopes's 1614. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Volkanovski brings a versatile approach, while Lopes is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Lopes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lopes throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkanovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Lopes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Lopes over Alexander Volkanovski. The model gives Lopes a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Paddy Pimblett (7-0) taking on Michael Chandler (2-4). Pimblett is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pimblett is rated at 1568 — 249 points above Chandler's 1319. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pimblett rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Pimblett looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Chandler is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pimblett the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chandler throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Chandler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Pimblett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paddy Pimblett over Michael Chandler. We're leaning Pimblett here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Yair Rodriguez (10-4) taking on Patricio Freire (0-1). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez is rated at 1559 — 406 points above Freire's 1152. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Freire has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yair Rodriguez over Patricio Freire. We're leaning Rodriguez here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Jean Silva (5-1) taking on Bryce Mitchell (8-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Mitchell.

Silva is rated at 1537 — 182 points above Mitchell's 1355. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Silva's knockout artist game against Mitchell's wrestler approach. Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Mitchell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Mitchell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryce Mitchell over Jean Silva. The model gives Mitchell a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dominick Reyes (9-4) taking on Nikita Krylov (11-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Reyes at 1529 versus Krylov at 1400. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Reyes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Reyes is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Krylov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Reyes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Krylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Krylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Dominick Reyes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Krylov at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Ige (11-9) taking on Sean Woodson (7-1-1). Woodson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ige at 1235, Woodson at 1235. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Woodson has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodson throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Woodson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Woodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Woodson over Dan Ige. The model gives Woodson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Virna Jandiroba (8-3) taking on Yan Xiaonan (9-3).

Jandiroba carries a modest Elo edge (1457 to 1412), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Jandiroba rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Jandiroba's wrestler game against Xiaonan's striker approach. Jandiroba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Xiaonan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Xiaonan throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jandiroba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Jandiroba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yan Xiaonan over Virna Jandiroba. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Xiaonan at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Chase Hooper (8-3) taking on Jim Miller (27-17). Hooper is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Miller carries a modest Elo edge (1213 to 1175), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Hooper rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Hooper is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Miller is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooper throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Hooper over Jim Miller. The model gives Hooper a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Julian Erosa (9-7) taking on Darren Elkins (19-10). Erosa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Erosa is rated at 1280 — 168 points above Elkins's 1113. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Erosa rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Erosa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Elkins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Elkins the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erosa throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Erosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julian Erosa over Darren Elkins. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Erosa at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7) taking on Sedriques Dumas (3-3). Dumas is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Oleksiejczuk is rated at 1268 — 451 points above Dumas's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleksiejczuk throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleksiejczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Dumas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sedriques Dumas over Michal Oleksiejczuk. The model gives Dumas a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Sumudaerji (4-4) taking on Mitch Raposo (0-2). Sumudaerji is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Sumudaerji at 1054 versus Raposo at 962. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sumudaerji throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Raposo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Sumudaerji has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sumudaerji over Mitch Raposo. The model gives Sumudaerji a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Marco Tulio (2-0) taking on Tresean Gore (2-3).

Tulio is rated at 1133 — 217 points above Gore's 916. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tulio throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gore is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Tulio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marco Tulio over Tresean Gore. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tulio at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Nora Cornolle (3-2) taking on Hailey Cowan (0-1).

Cornolle is rated at 1027 — 157 points above Cowan's 870. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cowan throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cowan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Cornolle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nora Cornolle over Hailey Cowan. The model gives Cornolle a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.