UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch
Saturday, September 16, 2017·Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
Model Record: 8/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightHIT
Luke Rockhold won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rockhold 70%30% Branch
CONFIDENTMarket: 82% (-11.9% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +434(favors Rockhold)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Rockhold)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Branch)
WelterweightHIT
Mike Perry won by KO/TKO (R1)
Perry 88%12% Reyes
STRONGMarket: 81% (+7.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +312(favors Perry)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.7(favors Perry)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Reyes)
MiddleweightHIT
Anthony Smith won by KO/TKO (R3)
Smith 59%41% Lombard
LEANMarket: 57% (+1.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +116(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Lombard)
LightweightHIT
Gregor Gillespie won by Submission (R2)
Gillespie 88%12% Gonzalez
STRONGMarket: 79% (+8.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +207(favors Gillespie)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Gillespie)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.9(favors Gillespie)
WelterweightHIT
Kamaru Usman won by KO/TKO (R1)
Usman 86%14% Moraes
STRONGMarket: 86% (+0.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +82(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Usman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Usman)
HeavyweightHIT
Justin Ledet won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ledet 93%7% Anyanwu
STRONGMarket: 79% (+14.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +169(favors Ledet)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.7(favors Ledet)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Ledet)
LightweightHIT
Olivier Aubin-Mercier won by Decision - Split (R3)
Aubin-Mercier 68%32% Martin
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +30(favors Aubin-Mercier)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Martin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Aubin-Mercier)
HeavyweightMISS
Daniel Spitz won by KO/TKO (R1)
Spitz 43%57% Hamilton
LEANMarket: 35% (+7.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +20(favors Spitz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Hamilton)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Hamilton)
MiddleweightMISS
Uriah Hall won by KO/TKO (R2)
Hall 35%65% Jotko
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -76(favors Jotko)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Hall)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Jotko)
LightweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by KO/TKO (R2)
Burns 56%44% Saggo
LEANMarket: 57% (-1.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -44(favors Saggo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Saggo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Saggo)