UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Weidman (12-7) taking on Kelvin Gastelum (13-10). Weidman is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Gastelum is rated at 1340 — 279 points above Weidman's 1060. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Weidman's wrestler game against Gastelum's knockout artist approach. Weidman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gastelum is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gastelum throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Weidman over Kelvin Gastelum. The model gives Weidman a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Weidman at 41% implied while our model sees 61% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Dennis Bermudez (9-7). Elkins is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Elkins carries a modest Elo edge (1113 to 1068), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Bermudez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Darren Elkins. The model gives Bermudez a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Elkins at 34% implied while our model sees 44% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Patrick Cummins (6-6) taking on Gian Villante (7-10).

Cummins is rated at 867 — 162 points above Villante's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villante throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Villante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gian Villante over Patrick Cummins. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Villante at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Cummins at 40% implied while our model sees 49% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jimmie Rivera (7-3) taking on Thomas Almeida (5-4). Almeida is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Rivera is rated at 1277 — 326 points above Almeida's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rivera's all-rounder game against Almeida's striker approach. Rivera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Almeida brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimmie Rivera over Thomas Almeida. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Rivera, but our model sees only 58%. That 6-point gap favoring Almeida is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1) taking on Lyman Good (3-2).

Good is rated at 1228 — 187 points above Santos's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's all-rounder game against Good's striker approach. Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Good brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Good throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Good has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Lyman Good. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 39% implied while our model sees 59% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Eryk Anders (9-8) taking on Rafael Natal (9-6-1).

Anders is rated at 1106 — 174 points above Natal's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Anders's striker game against Natal's wrestler approach. Anders brings a versatile approach, while Natal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Natal throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Anders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Natal over Eryk Anders. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Natal at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 52% for Anders, but our model sees only 45%. That 7-point gap favoring Natal is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Oliveira (11-9) taking on Ryan LaFlare (7-2).

LaFlare is rated at 1174 — 240 points above Oliveira's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while LaFlare is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. LaFlare has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Oliveira over Ryan LaFlare. The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Oliveira at 37% implied while our model sees 61% — a 23-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Chase Sherman (4-10) taking on Damian Grabowski (0-2). Sherman is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sherman carries a modest Elo edge (822 to 753), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sherman throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Grabowski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sherman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Sherman over Damian Grabowski. The model is firm on this one: Sherman at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Sherman at 69% implied while our model sees 81% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Jeremy Kennedy (3-0) taking on Kyle Bochniak (2-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Kennedy.

Kennedy is rated at 1090 — 227 points above Bochniak's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kennedy rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bochniak throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kennedy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Bochniak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Kennedy over Kyle Bochniak. The model is firm on this one: Kennedy at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Kennedy at 69% implied while our model sees 80% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-9) taking on Brian Kelleher (8-8). Vera is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Vera is rated at 1460 — 694 points above Kelleher's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Kelleher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brian Kelleher over Marlon Vera. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kelleher at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Vera at 34% implied while our model sees 49% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Albini (1-3) taking on Timothy Johnson (3-3). Johnson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Johnson is rated at 1067 — 249 points above Albini's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Albini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Timothy Johnson over Junior Albini. We're leaning Johnson here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Shane Burgos (7-3) taking on Godofredo Pepey (5-5). Burgos is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Burgos is rated at 1365 — 339 points above Pepey's 1026. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Burgos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pepey is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pepey the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burgos throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Burgos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Burgos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shane Burgos over Godofredo Pepey. The model is firm on this one: Burgos at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Burgos at 78% implied while our model sees 81% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Wade (4-2) taking on Frankie Perez (1-2). Perez will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Wade is rated at 1133 — 238 points above Perez's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wade throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Wade over Frankie Perez. We're leaning Wade here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 74% for Wade, but our model sees only 70%. That 4-point gap favoring Perez is worth watching.