UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Sunday, July 16, 2017·Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom
Model Record: 10/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightMISS
Santiago Ponzinibbio won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ponzinibbio 38%62% Nelson
LEANMarket: 38% (+0.5% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -123(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Nelson)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Cynthia Calvillo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Calvillo 61%39% Wood
LEANMarket: 63% (-1.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +114(favors Calvillo)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Wood)
LightweightMISS
Paul Felder won by KO/TKO (R1)
Felder 38%62% Ray
LEANMarket: 38% (-0.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -73(favors Ray)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Ray)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Felder)
MiddleweightHIT
Jack Marshman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Marshman 88%12% Janes
STRONGMarket: 83% (+5.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +57(favors Marshman)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Janes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Janes)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Khalil Rountree Jr. won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jr. 50%50% Craig
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -41(favors Craig)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Craig)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Craig)
HeavyweightHIT
Justin Willis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Willis 63%37% Mulheron
LEANMarket: 63% (+0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Mulheron)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Mulheron)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mulheron)
WelterweightHIT
Danny Roberts won by KO/TKO (R2)
Roberts 52%48% Nash
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-9.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +171(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Roberts)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Nash)
FlyweightHIT
Alexandre Pantoja won by Submission (R3)
Pantoja 82%18% Seery
STRONGMarket: 75% (+6.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -5(favors Seery)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Seery)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Seery)
WelterweightHIT
Galore Bofando won by KO/TKO (R1)
Bofando 70%30% Ward
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+5.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +128(favors Bofando)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Ward)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ward)
LightweightHIT
Danny Henry won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Henry 55%45% Teymur
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Teymur)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Teymur)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Teymur)
BantamweightHIT
Brett Johns won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johns 74%26% Morales
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-2.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +66(favors Johns)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: +10.2(favors Johns)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Leslie Smith won by KO/TKO (R2)
Smith 54%46% Lemos
TOSS-UPMarket: 65% (-10.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Lemos)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.4(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lemos)