UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
Sunday, June 25, 2017·Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
Model Record: 11/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Kevin Lee won by Submission (R1)
Lee 69%31% Chiesa
CONFIDENTMarket: 55% (+14.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +97(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Lee)
MiddleweightHIT
Tim Boetsch won by KO/TKO (R2)
Boetsch 53%47% Hendricks
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+11.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -47(favors Hendricks)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Boetsch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Hendricks)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Felice Herrig won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Herrig 33%67% Kish
CONFIDENTMarket: 43% (-9.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Herrig)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Kish)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Kish)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Dominick Reyes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Reyes 80%20% Christensen
STRONGMarket: 75% (+4.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +17(favors Reyes)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Christensen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Christensen)
WelterweightHIT
Tim Means won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Means 70%30% Garcia
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-3.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +37(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.3(favors Garcia)
FeatherweightHIT
Dennis Siver won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Siver 55%45% Penn
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -54(favors Penn)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Siver)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Siver)
LightweightMISS
Clay Guida won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Guida 29%71% Koch
CONFIDENTMarket: 24% (+5.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -38(favors Koch)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Guida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Guida)
MiddleweightHIT
Marvin Vettori won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vettori 86%14% Miranda
STRONGMarket: 77% (+8.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -177(favors Miranda)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Miranda)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Vettori)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Carla Esparza won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Esparza 73%27% Moroz
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+6.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -160(favors Moroz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Moroz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.1(favors Esparza)
LightweightHIT
Darrell Horcher won by Decision - Split (R3)
Horcher 74%26% Powell
CONFIDENTMarket: 78% (-3.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +73(favors Horcher)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Powell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Powell)
FeatherweightHIT
Jared Gordon won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gordon 58%42% Quinones
LEANMarket: 58% (+0.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Quinones)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Quinones)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Quinones)
LightweightHIT
Anthony Rocco Martin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Martin 51%49% Case
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -15(favors Case)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Case)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Case)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jeremy Kimball won by KO/TKO (R1)
Kimball 53%47% Stansbury
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+14.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -83(favors Stansbury)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Stansbury)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Stansbury)