UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Mark Hunt (8-7-1) taking on Derrick Lewis (20-10). Lewis is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 197 points above Hunt's 1169. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lewis throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Lewis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Mark Hunt. The model gives Lewis a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Derek Brunson (14-6) taking on Daniel Kelly (6-3). Brunson will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Brunson is rated at 1402 — 350 points above Kelly's 1052. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Brunson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kelly looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kelly the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brunson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Kelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derek Brunson over Daniel Kelly. The model is firm on this one: Brunson at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Brunson at 72% implied while our model sees 83% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Dan Hooker (14-9) taking on Ross Pearson (12-12). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Hooker is rated at 1450 — 601 points above Pearson's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hooker's all-rounder game against Pearson's striker approach. Hooker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pearson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Hooker over Ross Pearson. The model gives Hooker a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1) taking on Henrique da Silva (2-3).

Cutelaba is rated at 1147 — 387 points above Silva's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cutelaba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cutelaba the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Cutelaba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Henrique da Silva. We're leaning Cutelaba here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Ben Nguyen (4-2) taking on Tim Elliott (9-11).

Elliott is rated at 1241 — 206 points above Nguyen's 1036. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nguyen throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Elliott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Elliott over Ben Nguyen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elliott at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Nguyen at 35% implied while our model sees 49% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (14-3) taking on Mizuto Hirota (1-4-1). Volkanovski will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Volkanovski is rated at 1824 — 1047 points above Hirota's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkanovski throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkanovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkanovski over Mizuto Hirota. The model is firm on this one: Volkanovski at 76%.

The Lightweight matchup features Vinc Pichel (7-4) taking on Damien Brown (2-3). Pichel will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pichel is rated at 1062 — 208 points above Brown's 854. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pichel throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pichel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.0 more per 15 minutes. Pichel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vinc Pichel over Damien Brown. The model gives Pichel a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Pichel at 48% implied while our model sees 56% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Luke Jumeau (2-1) taking on Dominique Steele (1-3).

Jumeau is rated at 1005 — 159 points above Steele's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Steele throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Steele is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Jumeau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Jumeau over Dominique Steele. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jumeau at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Jumeau at 39% implied while our model sees 50% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features John Moraga (8-5) taking on Ashkan Mokhtarian (0-1).

Moraga is rated at 1166 — 330 points above Mokhtarian's 836. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Moraga rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moraga throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Mokhtarian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Moraga over Ashkan Mokhtarian. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moraga at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Moraga, but our model sees only 50%. That 12-point gap favoring Mokhtarian is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Zak Ottow (4-3) taking on Kiichi Kunimoto (3-1).

Kunimoto carries a modest Elo edge (1025 to 963), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ottow throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kunimoto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Ottow has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zak Ottow over Kiichi Kunimoto. The model is firm on this one: Ottow at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Ottow at 75% implied while our model sees 79% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features JJ Aldrich (9-6) taking on Chan-Mi Jeon (0-1).

Aldrich is rated at 1079 — 233 points above Jeon's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldrich throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jeon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jeon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chan-Mi Jeon over JJ Aldrich. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jeon at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.