UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
Saturday, June 3, 2017·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightMISS
Max Holloway won by KO/TKO (R3)
Holloway 49%51% Aldo
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+6.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +61(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Aldo)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Claudia Gadelha won by Submission (R1)
Gadelha 71%29% Kowalkiewicz
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-2.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -52(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.6(favors Gadelha)
MiddleweightHIT
Vitor Belfort won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Belfort 50%50% Marquardt
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-9.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +194(favors Belfort)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Belfort)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Marquardt)
MiddleweightHIT
Paulo Costa won by KO/TKO (R2)
Costa 70%30% Bamgbose
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-0.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +114(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: +15.3(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bamgbose)
WelterweightMISS
Yancy Medeiros won by KO/TKO (R2)
Medeiros 50%50% Silva
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-6.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Medeiros)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Medeiros)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Silva)
BantamweightMISS
Raphael Assuncao won by Decision - Split (R3)
Assuncao 34%66% Moraes
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (+0.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +447(favors Assuncao)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Assuncao)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Assuncao)
MiddleweightHIT
Antonio Carlos Junior won by Submission (R2)
Junior 81%19% Spicely
STRONGMarket: 72% (+8.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -48(favors Spicely)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Junior)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Junior)
BantamweightHIT
Matthew Lopez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lopez 50%50% Eduardo
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-6.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -149(favors Eduardo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Eduardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Lopez)
BantamweightMISS
Brian Kelleher won by Submission (R1)
Kelleher 42%58% Alcantara
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -314(favors Alcantara)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Alcantara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Alcantara)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Viviane Pereira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pereira 52%48% Moyle
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-7.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +15(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Moyle)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Moyle)
WelterweightHIT
Luan Chagas won by Submission (R2)
Chagas 77%23% Wallhead
STRONGMarket: 70% (+7.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -6(favors Wallhead)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Wallhead)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Chagas)
FlyweightMISS
Deiveson Figueiredo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Figueiredo 36%64% Beltran
LEANMarket: 57% (-20.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -72(favors Beltran)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Beltran)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Beltran)