UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
Saturday, September 17, 2016·Hidalgo, Texas, USA
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightMISS
Michael Johnson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Johnson 42%58% Poirier
LEANMarket: 39% (+2.9% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -200(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Poirier)
MiddleweightHIT
Derek Brunson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brunson 65%35% Hall
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +170(favors Brunson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Hall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Brunson)
LightweightHIT
Evan Dunham won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dunham 65%35% Glenn
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +325(favors Dunham)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.0(favors Dunham)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Dunham)
WelterweightHIT
Roan Carneiro won by Decision - Split (R3)
Carneiro 52%48% Robertson
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+4.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -115(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Robertson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Carneiro)
LightweightHIT
Islam Makhachev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Makhachev 71%29% Wade
CONFIDENTMarket: 54% (+17.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -160(favors Wade)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Makhachev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Makhachev)
FeatherweightMISS
Chas Skelly won by Submission (R1)
Skelly 33%67% Blanco
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (-30.5% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +154(favors Skelly)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Blanco)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Blanco)
FeatherweightHIT
Gabriel Benitez won by Submission (R2)
Benitez 56%44% Sicilia
LEANMarket: 45% (+11.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Sicilia)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Benitez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Sicilia)
WelterweightHIT
Belal Muhammad won by KO/TKO (R3)
Muhammad 83%17% Montano
STRONGMarket: 80% (+3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -87(favors Montano)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Muhammad)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Muhammad)
MiddleweightHIT
Antonio Carlos Junior won by Submission (R3)
Junior 80%20% Guimaraes
STRONGMarket: 70% (+10.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +85(favors Junior)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Guimaraes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Junior)
BantamweightHIT
Jose Quinonez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Quinonez 57%43% Gomez
LEANMarket: 42% (+14.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +98(favors Quinonez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Quinonez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Quinonez)
WelterweightHIT
Randy Brown won by Submission (R3)
Brown 84%16% Montano
STRONGMarket: 79% (+4.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -97(favors Montano)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Montano)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Montano)
Bantamweight
Perez 45%55% Morales
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-7.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +144(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Perez)