UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
Saturday, August 27, 2016·Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Model Record: 9/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Demian Maia won by Submission (R1)
Maia 61%39% Condit
LEANMarket: 47% (+13.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +163(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Condit)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Maia)
FeatherweightHIT
Anthony Pettis won by Submission (R3)
Pettis 52%48% Oliveira
TOSS-UPMarket: 65% (-12.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -127(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Oliveira)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Paige VanZant won by KO/TKO (R2)
VanZant 61%39% Rawlings
LEANMarket: 66% (-5.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -12(favors Rawlings)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Rawlings)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors VanZant)
LightweightHIT
Jim Miller won by Decision - Split (R3)
Miller 53%47% Lauzon
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+9.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -169(favors Lauzon)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Lauzon)
MiddleweightHIT
Sam Alvey won by KO/TKO (R2)
Alvey 75%25% Casey
STRONGMarket: 69% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +243(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Casey)
FeatherweightMISS
Kyle Bochniak won by Decision - Split (R3)
Bochniak 45%55% Barzola
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-14.9% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -174(favors Barzola)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Bochniak)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Barzola)
MiddleweightHIT
Alessio Di Chirico won by Decision - Split (R3)
Chirico 80%20% McLellan
STRONGMarket: 72% (+7.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -71(favors McLellan)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Chirico)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Chirico)
LightweightHIT
Felipe Silva won by KO/TKO (R1)
Silva 53%47% Campbell
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+11.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +129(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Campbell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Campbell)
LightweightHIT
Chad Laprise won by KO/TKO (R1)
Laprise 78%22% Gouti
STRONGMarket: 74% (+4.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +238(favors Laprise)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Laprise)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Laprise)
LightweightHIT
Jeremy Kennedy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kennedy 64%36% Ricci
LEANMarket: 58% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Ricci)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Ricci)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ricci)