UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Saturday, January 24, 2026·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✗
Justin Gaethje won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Gaethje 35%65% Pimblett
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +196(favors Gaethje)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Pimblett)
Bantamweight✗
Sean O'Malley won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
O'Malley 49%51% Yadong
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +58(favors O'Malley)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors O'Malley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Yadong)
Heavyweight✓
Waldo Cortes Acosta won by KO/TKO (R2)
Acosta 55%45% Lewis
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +57(favors Acosta)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Acosta)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Lewis)
Women's Flyweight✓
Natalia Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 53%47% Namajunas
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +51(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Namajunas)
Featherweight✓
Jean Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 51%49% Allen
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -184(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Allen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Allen)
Bantamweight✓
Umar Nurmagomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nurmagomedov 77%23% Figueiredo
STRONG
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +79(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Nurmagomedov)
Middleweight✓
Ateba Gautier won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gautier 72%28% Pulyaev
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +160(favors Gautier)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.4(favors Gautier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Gautier)
Light Heavyweight✓
Nikita Krylov won by KO/TKO (R3)
Krylov 50%50% Bukauskas
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -81(favors Bukauskas)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Krylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.4(favors Krylov)
Flyweight✗
Alex Perez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Perez 36%64% Johnson
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -181(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Perez)
Heavyweight✓
Josh Hokit won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hokit 54%46% Freeman
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +43(favors Hokit)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.4(favors Hokit)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Freeman)
Welterweight✓
Ty Miller won by KO/TKO (R1)
Miller 51%49% Fugitt
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +95(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors Fugitt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Fugitt)