UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-12). Jones will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 1245 points above Preux's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Jones over Ovince Saint Preux. The model is firm on this one: Jones at 78%.

The Flyweight matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on Henry Cejudo (10-5).

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 188 points above Cejudo's 1416. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Johnson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cejudo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Johnson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Cejudo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over Henry Cejudo. The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 78% implied while our model sees 84% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Anthony Pettis (10-9). Barboza will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pettis is rated at 1512 — 370 points above Barboza's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Barboza's striker game against Pettis's all-rounder approach. Barboza brings a versatile approach, while Pettis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Barboza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Barboza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edson Barboza over Anthony Pettis. The model gives Barboza a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Barboza at 39% implied while our model sees 55% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Rafael Natal (9-6-1). Natal will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Whittaker is rated at 1528 — 597 points above Natal's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Whittaker's striker game against Natal's wrestler approach. Whittaker brings a versatile approach, while Natal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Rafael Natal. The model is firm on this one: Whittaker at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Whittaker at 74% implied while our model sees 80% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Yair Rodriguez (10-4) taking on Andre Fili (12-11). Fili will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rodriguez is rated at 1559 — 419 points above Fili's 1140. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Fili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Fili the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Fili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yair Rodriguez over Andre Fili. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rodriguez at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Sergio Pettis (8-5) taking on Chris Kelades (2-1).

Pettis is rated at 1235 — 259 points above Kelades's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergio Pettis over Chris Kelades. We're leaning Pettis here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Pettis at 67% implied while our model sees 75% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Danny Roberts (7-6) taking on Dominique Steele (1-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Roberts.

Roberts carries a modest Elo edge (906 to 846), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Steele throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Steele is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Roberts over Dominique Steele. The model is firm on this one: Roberts at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Roberts at 77% implied while our model sees 85% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Carla Esparza (10-5) taking on Juliana Lima (3-3). Lima is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Esparza is rated at 1274 — 374 points above Lima's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Esparza's wrestler game against Lima's striker approach. Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lima brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Esparza throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carla Esparza over Juliana Lima. The model gives Esparza a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Esparza, but our model sees only 56%. That 8-point gap favoring Lima is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features James Vick (9-4) taking on Glaico Franca Moreira (1-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Vick.

Vick carries a modest Elo edge (1026 to 971), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vick throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Vick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Glaico Franca Moreira over James Vick. We're leaning Moreira here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Walt Harris (6-8) taking on Cody East (0-1).

Harris is rated at 1133 — 426 points above East's 708. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Harris throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. East is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. East has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody East over Walt Harris. We're leaning East here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 38% for Harris, but our model sees only 33%. That 5-point gap favoring East is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7) taking on Clint Hester (4-2).

Lima is rated at 1275 — 383 points above Hester's 892. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lima's all-rounder game against Hester's striker approach. Lima is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hester brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hester is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Hester has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clint Hester over Marcos Rogerio de Lima. We're leaning Hester here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 55% for Lima, but our model sees only 27%. That 28-point gap favoring Hester is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Kevin Lee (11-7) taking on Efrain Escudero (5-6). Lee will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lee is rated at 1197 — 256 points above Escudero's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Escudero is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Escudero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Lee over Efrain Escudero. The model is firm on this one: Lee at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Lee at 78% implied while our model sees 90% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.