UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy
Sunday, February 21, 2016·Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
Model Record: 9/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Donald Cerrone won by Submission (R1)
Cerrone 66%34% Oliveira
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (-4.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +386(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Oliveira)
MiddleweightHIT
Derek Brunson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brunson 88%12% Carneiro
STRONGMarket: 77% (+10.6% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +372(favors Brunson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Brunson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Carneiro)
Catch WeightHIT
Cody Garbrandt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Garbrandt 92%8% Mendes
STRONGMarket: 77% (+14.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +219(favors Garbrandt)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Garbrandt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Garbrandt)
FeatherweightHIT
Dennis Bermudez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bermudez 87%13% Kawajiri
STRONGMarket: 77% (+10.3% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -75(favors Kawajiri)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Bermudez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Bermudez)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Camozzi won by KO/TKO (R1)
Camozzi 76%24% Riggs
STRONGMarket: 69% (+6.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -2(favors Riggs)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Camozzi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Riggs)
LightweightHIT
James Krause won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Krause 51%49% Campbell
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-7.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +92(favors Krause)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Krause)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Campbell)
WelterweightHIT
Sean Strickland won by KO/TKO (R3)
Strickland 59%41% Garcia
LEANMarket: 48% (+11.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -23(favors Garcia)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Garcia)
MiddleweightMISS
Oluwale Bamgbose won by KO/TKO (R1)
Bamgbose 50%50% Sarafian
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+11.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -142(favors Sarafian)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Bamgbose)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Sarafian)
MiddleweightHIT
Anthony Smith won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Smith 59%41% Guimaraes
LEANMarket: 55% (+3.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -111(favors Guimaraes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Guimaraes)
WelterweightMISS
Nathan Coy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Coy 26%74% Webb
CONFIDENTMarket: 30% (-3.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -52(favors Webb)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Coy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Coy)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Ashlee Evans-Smith won by Decision - Split (R3)
Evans-Smith 44%56% Reneau
LEANMarket: 38% (+6.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -200(favors Reneau)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Reneau)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Evans-Smith)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Lauren Murphy won by KO/TKO (R3)
Murphy 78%22% Faszholz
STRONGMarket: 75% (+3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -169(favors Faszholz)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Murphy)
HeavyweightMISS
Shamil Abdurakhimov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Abdurakhimov 48%52% Hamilton
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (-3.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -183(favors Hamilton)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Hamilton)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.4(favors Hamilton)