UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-5) taking on Ryan Bader (14-5). Johnson will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Johnson at 1708 versus Bader at 1619. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Bader's wrestler approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Bader looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Ryan Bader. The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 70% implied while our model sees 75% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ben Rothwell (9-7) taking on Josh Barnett (6-3).

Barnett is rated at 1454 — 375 points above Rothwell's 1080. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rothwell is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Barnett is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Rothwell the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barnett throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Barnett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Barnett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Barnett over Ben Rothwell. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barnett at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Rothwell at 44% implied while our model sees 48% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jimmie Rivera (7-3) taking on Iuri Alcantara (10-6). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rivera is rated at 1277 — 231 points above Alcantara's 1046. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rivera's all-rounder game against Alcantara's striker approach. Rivera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Alcantara brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimmie Rivera over Iuri Alcantara. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Barberena (9-9) taking on Sage Northcutt (5-2).

Northcutt is rated at 1249 — 289 points above Barberena's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Northcutt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.3 more per 15 minutes. Barberena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sage Northcutt over Bryan Barberena. We're leaning Northcutt here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Barberena at 29% implied while our model sees 33% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Tarec Saffiedine (2-3) taking on Jake Ellenberger (10-10).

Saffiedine is rated at 1116 — 270 points above Ellenberger's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saffiedine throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellenberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Ellenberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tarec Saffiedine over Jake Ellenberger. The model gives Saffiedine a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 69% for Saffiedine, but our model sees only 58%. That 12-point gap favoring Ellenberger is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Ferreira (10-6) taking on Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-4). Ferreira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ferreira at 1213 versus Aubin-Mercier at 1070. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Aubin-Mercier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Aubin-Mercier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Aubin-Mercier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Olivier Aubin-Mercier over Diego Ferreira. The model gives Aubin-Mercier a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Rafael Natal (9-6-1) taking on Kevin Casey (1-2-1).

Natal carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 895), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Natal throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Casey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Natal over Kevin Casey. The model gives Natal a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Natal, but our model sees only 56%. That 5-point gap favoring Casey is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Wilson Reis (7-5) taking on Dustin Ortiz (8-5).

Ortiz is rated at 1329 — 246 points above Reis's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ortiz has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Reis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Reis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Ortiz over Wilson Reis. The model gives Ortiz a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Reis at 32% implied while our model sees 37% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alexander Yakovlev (3-5) taking on George Sullivan (3-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Yakovlev.

There's a real Elo separation here: Yakovlev at 970 versus Sullivan at 884. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Yakovlev is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sullivan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sullivan the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sullivan throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Sullivan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Sullivan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: George Sullivan over Alexander Yakovlev. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sullivan at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 53% for Yakovlev, but our model sees only 46%. That 6-point gap favoring Sullivan is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Masio Fullen (1-1). Caceres will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 369 points above Fullen's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Fullen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Fullen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Masio Fullen. We're leaning Caceres here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Randy Brown (14-6) taking on Matt Dwyer (1-2).

Brown is rated at 1381 — 480 points above Dwyer's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dwyer throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dwyer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Brown over Matt Dwyer. The model gives Brown a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Damon Jackson (6-5-1) taking on Levan Makashvili (1-1). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jackson carries a modest Elo edge (1039 to 994), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Makashvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Makashvili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Levan Makashvili over Damon Jackson. We're leaning Makashvili here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Rocco Martin (9-5) taking on Felipe Olivieri (0-0).

Martin is rated at 1419 — 554 points above Olivieri's 866. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martin throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Martin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Olivieri has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin over Felipe Olivieri. We're leaning Martin here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.