The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on Chad Mendes (9-4).

Mendes is rated at 1377 — 192 points above Edgar's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Chad Mendes. The model gives Edgar a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Ryan Hall (4-1) taking on Artem Lobov (2-4). Hall will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hall is rated at 1214 — 269 points above Lobov's 945. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hall's all-rounder game against Lobov's striker approach. Hall is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lobov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lobov throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lobov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lobov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Artem Lobov over Ryan Hall. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lobov at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-8) taking on Edson Barboza (18-13).

Barboza carries a modest Elo edge (1142 to 1065), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Ferguson's submission artist game against Barboza's striker approach. Ferguson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Barboza brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferguson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Edson Barboza. We're leaning Ferguson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Evan Dunham (11-8-1) taking on Joe Lauzon (14-12).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dunham at 1019, Lauzon at 1036. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dunham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Dunham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Evan Dunham. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lauzon at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Tatsuya Kawajiri (3-2) taking on Jason Knight (4-4). Knight is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kawajiri at 1092 versus Knight at 987. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Kawajiri's wrestler game against Knight's knockout artist approach. Kawajiri looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Knight is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kawajiri throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kawajiri is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Knight has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jason Knight over Tatsuya Kawajiri. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Knight at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Julian Erosa (9-7) taking on Marcin Wrzosek (0-0).

Erosa is rated at 1280 — 348 points above Wrzosek's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Erosa rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wrzosek throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wrzosek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wrzosek has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julian Erosa over Marcin Wrzosek. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Erosa at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9) taking on Konstantin Erokhin (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gonzaga at 967 versus Erokhin at 826. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzaga throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Gonzaga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga over Konstantin Erokhin. The model gives Gonzaga a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Ryan LaFlare (7-2) taking on Mike Pierce (9-4). LaFlare is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — LaFlare at 1174, Pierce at 1171. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: LaFlare looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pierce is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving LaFlare the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. LaFlare throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pierce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. LaFlare has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan LaFlare over Mike Pierce. We're leaning LaFlare here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Geane Herrera (1-2) taking on Joby Sanchez (1-3).

Herrera is rated at 972 — 241 points above Sanchez's 731. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Geane Herrera over Joby Sanchez. The model gives Herrera a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Gruetzemacher (3-3) taking on Abner Lloveras (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gruetzemacher at 1001 versus Lloveras at 915. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lloveras throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lloveras is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lloveras has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Gruetzemacher over Abner Lloveras. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gruetzemacher at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.