UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Kelvin Gastelum (13-10). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Gastelum carries a modest Elo edge (1340 to 1270), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Magny looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Magny the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Neil Magny. The model gives Gastelum a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Magny at 26% implied while our model sees 45% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Lamas (10-6) taking on Diego Sanchez (19-12).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lamas at 1285 versus Sanchez at 1139. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Lamas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sanchez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sanchez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lamas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Lamas over Diego Sanchez. The model is firm on this one: Lamas at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Lamas at 81% implied while our model sees 87% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Henry Cejudo (10-5) taking on Jussier Formiga (9-6). Formiga will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Cejudo is rated at 1416 — 267 points above Formiga's 1149. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cejudo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Formiga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Formiga the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cejudo throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Formiga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Cejudo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Henry Cejudo over Jussier Formiga. The model is firm on this one: Cejudo at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Cejudo at 82% implied while our model sees 86% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Erick Montano (1-1) taking on Enrique Marin (0-1).

Marin carries a modest Elo edge (874 to 808), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marin throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Marin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Marin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Enrique Marin over Erick Montano. The model gives Marin a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Montano at 36% implied while our model sees 42% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Enrique Barzola (6-3) taking on Horacio Gutierrez (0-1).

Barzola is rated at 1071 — 210 points above Gutierrez's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gutierrez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gutierrez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gutierrez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Horacio Gutierrez over Enrique Barzola. The model gives Gutierrez a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Barzola at 37% implied while our model sees 45% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Leandro Silva (3-3) taking on Efrain Escudero (5-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 1049 versus Escudero at 941. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Silva's all-rounder game against Escudero's knockout artist approach. Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Escudero is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Escudero throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leandro Silva over Efrain Escudero. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Silva at 58% implied while our model sees 63% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Erik Perez (6-2) taking on Taylor Lapilus (5-2). Lapilus will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Perez carries a modest Elo edge (1303 to 1238), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Perez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Lapilus is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Perez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lapilus throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Taylor Lapilus over Erik Perez. We're leaning Lapilus here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 53% for Perez, but our model sees only 35%. That 19-point gap favoring Lapilus is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Bartosz Fabinski (3-2) taking on Hector Urbina (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Fabinski at 909, Urbina at 915. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fabinski throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fabinski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.0 more per 15 minutes. Fabinski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bartosz Fabinski over Hector Urbina. The model is firm on this one: Fabinski at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Fabinski at 64% implied while our model sees 78% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alejandro Perez (8-3-1) taking on Scott Jorgensen (4-7).

Perez is rated at 1082 — 346 points above Jorgensen's 735. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Perez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jorgensen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jorgensen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jorgensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alejandro Perez over Scott Jorgensen. The model gives Perez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Perez at 45% implied while our model sees 57% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (12-11) taking on Gabriel Benitez (7-7). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Fili is rated at 1140 — 284 points above Benitez's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Fili's striker game against Benitez's all-rounder approach. Fili brings a versatile approach, while Benitez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Benitez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Fili over Gabriel Benitez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fili at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 66% for Fili, but our model sees only 55%. That 11-point gap favoring Benitez is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Alvaro Herrera Mendoza (1-2) taking on Vernon Ramos Ho (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ho at 873 versus Mendoza at 738. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ho throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vernon Ramos Ho over Alvaro Herrera Mendoza. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ho at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Marco Polo Reyes (4-3) taking on Cesar Arzamendia (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Reyes at 772, Arzamendia at 769. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arzamendia throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Arzamendia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Arzamendia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cesar Arzamendia over Marco Polo Reyes. We're leaning Arzamendia here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 37% for Reyes, but our model sees only 34%. That 3-point gap favoring Arzamendia is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Michel Prazeres (10-3) taking on Valmir Lazaro (1-1). Lazaro is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Prazeres is rated at 1157 — 186 points above Lazaro's 971. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lazaro throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Prazeres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Lazaro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michel Prazeres over Valmir Lazaro. We're leaning Prazeres here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Prazeres at 55% implied while our model sees 67% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.