UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Holly Holm (8-6) taking on Ronda Rousey (6-1). Holm will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rousey carries a modest Elo edge (1203 to 1127), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Holm's striker game against Rousey's submission artist approach. Holm brings a versatile approach, while Rousey is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rousey throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rousey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.5 more per 15 minutes. Holm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ronda Rousey over Holly Holm. We're leaning Rousey here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Holm at 8% implied while our model sees 31% — a 23-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4) taking on Valerie Letourneau (3-2). Letourneau will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jedrzejczyk is rated at 1192 — 274 points above Letourneau's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jedrzejczyk throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Letourneau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Jedrzejczyk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk over Valerie Letourneau. The model is firm on this one: Jedrzejczyk at 86%. The market implies 92% for Jedrzejczyk, but our model sees only 86%. That 6-point gap favoring Letourneau is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mark Hunt (8-7-1) taking on Antonio Silva (3-6-1). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Hunt is rated at 1169 — 237 points above Silva's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hunt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Hunt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Hunt over Antonio Silva. The model gives Hunt a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 70% for Hunt, but our model sees only 65%. That 6-point gap favoring Silva is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Uriah Hall (10-8). Hall will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Whittaker is rated at 1528 — 150 points above Hall's 1378. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Whittaker's striker game against Hall's all-rounder approach. Whittaker brings a versatile approach, while Hall is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Uriah Hall. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Whittaker at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jared Rosholt (6-1) taking on Stefan Struve (13-10). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Rosholt is rated at 1186 — 307 points above Struve's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Rosholt rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Rosholt's wrestler game against Struve's knockout artist approach. Rosholt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Struve is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Struve throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosholt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Rosholt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Rosholt over Stefan Struve. The model is firm on this one: Rosholt at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Rosholt at 46% implied while our model sees 75% — a 30-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-7) taking on Akbarh Arreola (1-2).

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 421 points above Arreola's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Arreola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Matthews over Akbarh Arreola. The model is firm on this one: Matthews at 88%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Kyle Noke (6-5) taking on Peter Sobotta (4-5).

Sobotta is rated at 1083 — 213 points above Noke's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Noke is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sobotta looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sobotta the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Noke throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobotta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Sobotta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Peter Sobotta over Kyle Noke. The model gives Sobotta a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Noke at 39% implied while our model sees 45% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Gian Villante (7-10) taking on Anthony Perosh (5-6).

Perosh is rated at 872 — 167 points above Villante's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Villante's striker game against Perosh's submission artist approach. Villante brings a versatile approach, while Perosh is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villante throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Villante is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Villante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gian Villante over Anthony Perosh. The model is firm on this one: Villante at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Villante at 79% implied while our model sees 85% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Danny Martinez (0-3) taking on Richie Vaculik (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Martinez at 878 versus Vaculik at 766. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vaculik throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Vaculik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Richie Vaculik over Danny Martinez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vaculik at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 51% for Martinez, but our model sees only 46%. That 5-point gap favoring Vaculik is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Daniel Kelly (6-3) taking on Steve Montgomery (0-1).

Kelly is rated at 1052 — 220 points above Montgomery's 833. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Kelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Montgomery over Daniel Kelly. We're leaning Montgomery here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Kelly at 29% implied while our model sees 33% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Richard Walsh (2-3) taking on Steve Kennedy (0-1).

Walsh carries a modest Elo edge (842 to 795), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walsh throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Walsh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Walsh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Richard Walsh over Steve Kennedy. The model is firm on this one: Walsh at 76%.

The Welterweight matchup features James Moontasri (2-3) taking on Anton Zafir (0-1).

Moontasri is rated at 984 — 228 points above Zafir's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moontasri throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Zafir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Zafir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Moontasri over Anton Zafir. The model is firm on this one: Moontasri at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Moontasri at 75% implied while our model sees 85% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Ben Nguyen (4-2) taking on Ryan Benoit (3-5). Benoit will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nguyen is rated at 1036 — 226 points above Benoit's 810. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nguyen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Benoit is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nguyen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nguyen throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Benoit is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Nguyen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ben Nguyen over Ryan Benoit. The model gives Nguyen a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Nguyen at 55% implied while our model sees 59% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.