UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Daniel Cormier (11-2) taking on Alexander Gustafsson (10-7). Gustafsson is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Cormier is rated at 1835 — 666 points above Gustafsson's 1169. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cormier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gustafsson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cormier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gustafsson throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cormier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Cormier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Cormier over Alexander Gustafsson. We're leaning Cormier here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Rashad Evans (14-7-1).

Bader is rated at 1619 — 497 points above Evans's 1121. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bader's wrestler game against Evans's striker approach. Bader looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Evans brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bader throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Bader over Rashad Evans. We're leaning Bader here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Bader at 46% implied while our model sees 68% — a 23-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ruslan Magomedov (2-0) taking on Shawn Jordan (6-3). Magomedov is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Magomedov at 1265 versus Jordan at 1164. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Jordan has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedov throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jordan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Magomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ruslan Magomedov over Shawn Jordan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Magomedov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Magomedov, but our model sees only 54%. That 9-point gap favoring Jordan is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Joseph Benavidez (15-5) taking on Ali Bagautinov (4-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Benavidez at 1291 versus Bagautinov at 1188. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Benavidez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bagautinov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bagautinov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benavidez throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bagautinov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Benavidez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joseph Benavidez over Ali Bagautinov. The model is firm on this one: Benavidez at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Julianna Pena (8-3) taking on Jessica Eye (5-9). Pena will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pena is rated at 1323 — 373 points above Eye's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pena's all-rounder game against Eye's striker approach. Pena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Eye brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pena throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Pena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julianna Pena over Jessica Eye. The model is firm on this one: Pena at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Pena at 68% implied while our model sees 79% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Yair Rodriguez (10-4) taking on Dan Hooker (14-9). Hooker will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rodriguez at 1559 versus Hooker at 1450. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's all-rounder game against Hooker's knockout artist approach. Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hooker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yair Rodriguez over Dan Hooker. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Albert Tumenov (5-2) taking on Alan Jouban (7-5).

Jouban carries a modest Elo edge (1168 to 1109), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jouban throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Tumenov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jouban has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Albert Tumenov over Alan Jouban. The model is firm on this one: Tumenov at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Tumenov at 70% implied while our model sees 76% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Adriano Martins (4-2) taking on Islam Makhachev (16-1).

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 1140 points above Martins's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev has won 15 straight.

The style clash matters here: Martins is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Makhachev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Makhachev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makhachev throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Makhachev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Adriano Martins. The model gives Makhachev a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 42% for Martins, but our model sees only 37%. That 5-point gap favoring Makhachev is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Rose Namajunas (12-6) taking on Angela Hill (13-15).

Namajunas is rated at 1421 — 348 points above Hill's 1074. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Namajunas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Angela Hill. We're leaning Namajunas here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Namajunas at 69% implied while our model sees 74% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Sage Northcutt (5-2) taking on Francisco Trevino (1-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Northcutt.

Northcutt is rated at 1249 — 369 points above Trevino's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trevino throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Trevino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Northcutt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sage Northcutt over Francisco Trevino. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Northcutt at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Sergio Pettis (8-5) taking on Chris Cariaso (7-5). Pettis is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Pettis is rated at 1235 — 304 points above Cariaso's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pettis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cariaso is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pettis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergio Pettis over Chris Cariaso. The model is firm on this one: Pettis at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Pettis at 65% implied while our model sees 78% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Viktor Pesta (1-3).

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 610 points above Pesta's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lewis throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pesta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Pesta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Viktor Pesta over Derrick Lewis. The model gives Pesta a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.