UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Jared Cannonier (11-8) taking on Gregory Rodrigues (8-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Rodrigues.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rodrigues at 1515 versus Cannonier at 1426. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodrigues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier. The model gives Rodrigues a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Youssef Zalal (7-3-1) taking on Calvin Kattar (7-7).

Zalal is rated at 1532 — 301 points above Kattar's 1231. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zalal rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Zalal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kattar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Zalal the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kattar throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Zalal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Zalal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Youssef Zalal over Calvin Kattar. We're leaning Zalal here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Edmen Shahbazyan (8-5) taking on Dylan Budka (0-2).

Shahbazyan is rated at 1314 — 538 points above Budka's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shahbazyan throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Budka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Shahbazyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan over Dylan Budka. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Shahbazyan at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Nazim Sadykhov (4-0-1) taking on Ismael Bonfim (2-2).

Sadykhov is rated at 1278 — 289 points above Bonfim's 989. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonfim throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Sadykhov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Bonfim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ismael Bonfim over Nazim Sadykhov. We're leaning Bonfim here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Andre Petroski (8-3) taking on Rodolfo Vieira (6-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Vieira at 1069 versus Petroski at 967. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vieira throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Vieira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Petroski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Petroski over Rodolfo Vieira. The model gives Petroski a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Jose Delgado (2-0) taking on Connor Matthews (0-2). Delgado is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Delgado is rated at 1194 — 488 points above Matthews's 706. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Delgado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Delgado over Connor Matthews. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Delgado at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Angela Hill (13-15) taking on Ketlen Souza (2-3).

Souza carries a modest Elo edge (1116 to 1074), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ketlen Souza over Angela Hill. We're leaning Souza here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Rafael Estevam (2-0) taking on Jesus Aguilar (3-2). Estevam is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Estevam at 1237 versus Aguilar at 1087. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Estevam throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Estevam is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Aguilar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jesus Aguilar over Rafael Estevam. The model gives Aguilar a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Gabriel Bonfim (5-1) taking on Khaos Williams (6-3). Williams will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bonfim is rated at 1618 — 460 points above Williams's 1159. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonfim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Bonfim's wrestler game against Williams's striker approach. Bonfim looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Williams brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bonfim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Bonfim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Bonfim over Khaos Williams. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bonfim at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Elijah Smith (1-0) taking on Vince Morales (3-7).

Smith is rated at 1143 — 291 points above Morales's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elijah Smith over Vince Morales. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smith at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Valter Walker (3-1) taking on Don'Tale Mayes (4-6). Mayes will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Walker is rated at 1314 — 465 points above Mayes's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Walker rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mayes throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Mayes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valter Walker over Don'Tale Mayes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Walker at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jacqueline Cavalcanti (4-0) taking on Julia Avila (3-2).

Cavalcanti is rated at 1291 — 357 points above Avila's 933. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Cavalcanti rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cavalcanti throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Avila is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Cavalcanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacqueline Cavalcanti over Julia Avila. We're leaning Cavalcanti here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.