UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 lands on Saturday, February 8, 2025 in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia with 12 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by 2 title bouts. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus Du Plessis vs Sean StricklandMiddleweight | Dricus Du Plessis | Lean | 64% |
| Zhang Weili vs Tatiana SuarezWomen's Strawweight | Zhang Weili | Lean | 56% |
| Tallison Teixeira vs Justin TafaHeavyweight | Tallison Teixeira | Lean | 59% |
| Jimmy Crute vs Rodolfo BellatoLight Heavyweight | Rodolfo Bellato | Lean | 61% |
| Jake Matthews vs Francisco PradoWelterweight | Jake Matthews | Lean | 59% |
| Gabriel Santos vs Jack JenkinsFeatherweight | Jack Jenkins | Toss-up | 52% |
| Tom Nolan vs Viacheslav BorshchevLightweight | Tom Nolan | Lean | 58% |
| Wang Cong vs Bruna BrasilWomen's Flyweight | Bruna Brasil | Lean | 56% |
| Aleksandre Topuria vs Colby ThicknesseBantamweight | Colby Thicknesse | Lean | 61% |
| Rongzhu vs Kody SteeleLightweight | Rongzhu | Toss-up | 55% |
| Jonathan Micallef vs Kevin JoussetWelterweight | Kevin Jousset | Toss-up | 54% |
| Quillan Salkilld vs Anshul JubliLightweight | Quillan Salkilld | Toss-up | 53% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Dricus Du Plessis vs Sean Strickland
The Middleweight championship matchup features Dricus Du Plessis (9-0) taking on Sean Strickland (16-7).
Plessis carries a modest Elo edge (1860 to 1813), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Plessis rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.
Stylistically this is Plessis's wrestler game against Strickland's knockout artist approach. Plessis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Strickland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Plessis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dricus Du Plessis over Sean Strickland. The model gives Plessis a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Zhang Weili vs Tatiana Suarez
The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Zhang Weili (10-2) taking on Tatiana Suarez (7-1). Suarez will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
There's a real Elo separation here: Weili at 1649 versus Suarez at 1531. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Weili rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Weili throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Suarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Weili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Zhang Weili over Tatiana Suarez. The model gives Weili a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Tallison Teixeira vs Justin Tafa
The Heavyweight matchup features Tallison Teixeira (1-1) taking on Justin Tafa (4-4). Teixeira is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 9-inch reach advantage.
Teixeira is rated at 1226 — 288 points above Tafa's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Tafa throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Tafa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tallison Teixeira over Justin Tafa. The model gives Teixeira a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Jimmy Crute vs Rodolfo Bellato
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimmy Crute (5-4-2) taking on Rodolfo Bellato (1-0-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Crute at 1151 versus Bellato at 1033. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bellato throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Crute is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Bellato has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rodolfo Bellato over Jimmy Crute. The model gives Bellato a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Jake Matthews vs Francisco Prado
The Welterweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-7) taking on Francisco Prado (1-3). Matthews will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
Matthews is rated at 1295 — 371 points above Prado's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Prado throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jake Matthews over Francisco Prado. The model gives Matthews a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Gabriel Santos vs Jack Jenkins
The Featherweight matchup features Gabriel Santos (1-2) taking on Jack Jenkins (3-2). Santos is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Santos carries a modest Elo edge (1116 to 1038), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jenkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Jenkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jack Jenkins over Gabriel Santos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jenkins at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Tom Nolan vs Viacheslav Borshchev
The Lightweight matchup features Tom Nolan (3-1) taking on Viacheslav Borshchev (3-5-1). Nolan is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Nolan is rated at 1262 — 450 points above Borshchev's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nolan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Nolan throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Borshchev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Borshchev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tom Nolan over Viacheslav Borshchev. The model gives Nolan a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Wang Cong vs Bruna Brasil
The Women's Flyweight matchup features Wang Cong (3-1) taking on Bruna Brasil (3-3).
Cong is rated at 1242 — 283 points above Brasil's 959. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Cong throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brasil is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Cong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Bruna Brasil over Wang Cong. The model gives Brasil a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Aleksandre Topuria vs Colby Thicknesse
The Bantamweight matchup features Aleksandre Topuria (1-0) taking on Colby Thicknesse (0-1).
Topuria is rated at 1174 — 184 points above Thicknesse's 990. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Thicknesse throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Thicknesse is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Thicknesse has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Colby Thicknesse over Aleksandre Topuria. The model gives Thicknesse a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Rongzhu vs Kody Steele
The Lightweight matchup features Rongzhu (2-3) taking on Kody Steele (0-0).
Rongzhu is rated at 1058 — 168 points above Steele's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rongzhu throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Rongzhu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Steele has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rongzhu over Kody Steele. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rongzhu at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Jonathan Micallef vs Kevin Jousset
The Welterweight matchup features Jonathan Micallef (1-0) taking on Kevin Jousset (2-1).
Micallef is rated at 1218 — 234 points above Jousset's 984. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jousset throws significantly more leather — a 7.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jousset is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Micallef has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kevin Jousset over Jonathan Micallef. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jousset at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Quillan Salkilld vs Anshul Jubli
The Lightweight matchup features Quillan Salkilld (3-0) taking on Anshul Jubli (1-1). Salkilld will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.
Salkilld is rated at 1406 — 599 points above Jubli's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Salkilld rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jubli throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jubli is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Salkilld has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Quillan Salkilld over Anshul Jubli. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Salkilld at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.