UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
Saturday, April 4, 2015·Fairfax, Virginia, USA
Model Record: 6/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightHIT
Chad Mendes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mendes 90%10% Lamas
STRONGMarket: 79% (+10.8% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -13(favors Lamas)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Mendes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Mendes)
LightweightMISS
Al Iaquinta won by Decision - Split (R3)
Iaquinta 47%53% Masvidal
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+2.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +115(favors Iaquinta)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Iaquinta)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Masvidal)
LightweightHIT
Michael Chiesa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Chiesa 76%24% Clarke
STRONGMarket: 76% (+0.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -51(favors Clarke)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Chiesa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Chiesa)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Julianna Pena won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pena 74%26% Dudieva
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (+3.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +73(favors Pena)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.9(favors Pena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Pena)
FeatherweightHIT
Clay Guida won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Guida 53%47% Peralta
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +105(favors Guida)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Peralta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Guida)
LightweightHIT
Dustin Poirier won by KO/TKO (R1)
Poirier 63%37% Ferreira
LEAN
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +165(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Poirier)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Liz Carmouche won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Carmouche 51%49% Murphy
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (+0.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -75(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Carmouche)
LightweightMISS
Alexander Yakovlev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Yakovlev 45%55% Maynard
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-8.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -142(favors Maynard)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Maynard)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Maynard)
HeavyweightMISS
Timothy Johnson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Johnson 33%67% Abdurakhimov
CONFIDENTMarket: 30% (+3.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Abdurakhimov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Abdurakhimov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Abdurakhimov)
MiddleweightMISS
Ron Stallings won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stallings 42%58% Jones
LEANMarket: 45% (-3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -20(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Stallings)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jones)