UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ronda Rousey (6-1) taking on Cat Zingano (3-3).

Rousey is rated at 1203 — 196 points above Zingano's 1008. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rousey's knockout artist game against Zingano's wrestler approach. Rousey is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Zingano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rousey throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rousey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Rousey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ronda Rousey over Cat Zingano. The model is firm on this one: Rousey at 87%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Holly Holm (8-6) taking on Raquel Pennington (13-5).

Pennington is rated at 1411 — 284 points above Holm's 1127. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington has won 6 straight.

Stylistically this is Holm's striker game against Pennington's all-rounder approach. Holm brings a versatile approach, while Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Holm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Holly Holm over Raquel Pennington. The model is firm on this one: Holm at 78%. The market implies 84% for Holm, but our model sees only 78%. That 7-point gap favoring Pennington is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Ellenberger (10-10) taking on Josh Koscheck (15-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Koscheck at 939 versus Ellenberger at 847. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ellenberger's striker game against Koscheck's all-rounder approach. Ellenberger brings a versatile approach, while Koscheck is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Koscheck throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellenberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Ellenberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Ellenberger over Josh Koscheck. We're leaning Ellenberger here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ellenberger at 65% implied while our model sees 70% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alan Jouban (7-5) taking on Richard Walsh (2-3).

Jouban is rated at 1168 — 326 points above Walsh's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jouban throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Walsh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Walsh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alan Jouban over Richard Walsh. We're leaning Jouban here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 74% for Jouban, but our model sees only 65%. That 9-point gap favoring Walsh is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-8) taking on Gleison Tibau (16-11). Ferguson will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ferguson carries a modest Elo edge (1065 to 1019), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Gleison Tibau. The model is firm on this one: Ferguson at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Ferguson at 69% implied while our model sees 77% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Roan Carneiro (4-4) taking on Mark Munoz (8-6). Carneiro will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Carneiro carries a modest Elo edge (1115 to 1082), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Carneiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Carneiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Munoz over Roan Carneiro. The model gives Munoz a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Carneiro at 29% implied while our model sees 39% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Roman Salazar (0-1) taking on Norifumi Yamamoto (0-3).

Salazar carries a modest Elo edge (829 to 765), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yamamoto throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Yamamoto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Salazar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roman Salazar over Norifumi Yamamoto. We're leaning Salazar here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Salazar at 37% implied while our model sees 70% — a 33-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on Dhiego Lima (4-6).

Lima carries a modest Elo edge (943 to 872), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Means's all-rounder game against Lima's striker approach. Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lima brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dhiego Lima over Tim Means. The model gives Lima a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 58% for Means, but our model sees only 42%. That 15-point gap favoring Lima is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Ruan Potts (0-2). Lewis will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 617 points above Potts's 749. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lewis throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Lewis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Ruan Potts. The model is firm on this one: Lewis at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Lewis at 82% implied while our model sees 92% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Valmir Lazaro (1-1) taking on James Krause (8-4).

Krause is rated at 1436 — 465 points above Lazaro's 971. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lazaro throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lazaro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Lazaro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valmir Lazaro over James Krause. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lazaro at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Lazaro at 38% implied while our model sees 54% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Masio Fullen (1-1) taking on Alex Torres (0-0).

Torres carries a modest Elo edge (932 to 863), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torres throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Torres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Torres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Torres over Masio Fullen. The model gives Torres a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.