UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson
Saturday, January 24, 2015·Stockholm, Sweden
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightMISS
Anthony Johnson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Johnson 30%70% Gustafsson
CONFIDENTMarket: 27% (+3.0% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -59(favors Gustafsson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Gustafsson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Johnson)
MiddleweightHIT
Gegard Mousasi won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mousasi 90%10% Henderson
STRONGMarket: 82% (+7.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -131(favors Henderson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Mousasi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Henderson)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ryan Bader won by Decision - Split (R3)
Bader 40%60% Davis
LEANMarket: 33% (+7.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -67(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Bader)
FeatherweightHIT
Sam Sicilia won by KO/TKO (R1)
Sicilia 60%40% Corassani
LEANMarket: 48% (+12.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -143(favors Corassani)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Corassani)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Sicilia)
WelterweightHIT
Albert Tumenov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tumenov 52%48% Musoke
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -23(favors Musoke)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Musoke)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Musoke)
WelterweightHIT
Kenny Robertson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Robertson 57%43% Aliev
LEANMarket: 38% (+19.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +176(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Robertson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Robertson)
FeatherweightHIT
Makwan Amirkhani won by KO/TKO (R1)
Amirkhani 52%48% Ogle
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+11.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +220(favors Amirkhani)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Ogle)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Ogle)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Nikita Krylov won by Submission (R1)
Krylov 74%26% Nedkov
CONFIDENTMarket: 54% (+20.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +54(favors Krylov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Krylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Nedkov)
LightweightHIT
Mairbek Taisumov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Taisumov 94%6% Christodoulou
STRONGMarket: 88% (+5.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +113(favors Taisumov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Taisumov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Taisumov)
FeatherweightHIT
Mirsad Bektic won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bektic 92%8% Redmond
STRONGMarket: 85% (+6.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +85(favors Bektic)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Bektic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Bektic)
HeavyweightMISS
Viktor Pesta won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pesta 46%54% Erokhin
TOSS-UPMarket: 23% (+23.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -85(favors Erokhin)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Pesta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Pesta)
FlyweightMISS
Neil Seery won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Seery 43%57% Beal
LEANMarket: 36% (+7.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -166(favors Beal)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Seery)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Beal)