UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Conor McGregor (10-3) taking on Dennis Siver (11-8). McGregor is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

McGregor is rated at 1573 — 359 points above Siver's 1214. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is McGregor's striker game against Siver's wrestler approach. McGregor brings a versatile approach, while Siver looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGregor throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. McGregor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. McGregor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Conor McGregor over Dennis Siver. The model is firm on this one: McGregor at 92%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Benson Henderson (10-3). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Henderson is rated at 1507 — 453 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cerrone's knockout artist game against Henderson's all-rounder approach. Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Henderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Benson Henderson over Donald Cerrone. The model gives Henderson a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 45% for Cerrone, but our model sees only 38%. That 7-point gap favoring Henderson is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Uriah Hall (10-8) taking on Ron Stallings (1-1). Hall will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hall is rated at 1378 — 363 points above Stallings's 1015. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Stallings has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uriah Hall over Ron Stallings. We're leaning Hall here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on Norman Parke (5-2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Parke at 1101 versus Tibau at 1019. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Tibau's wrestler game against Parke's striker approach. Tibau looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Parke brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parke throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Parke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Norman Parke over Gleison Tibau. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Parke at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Tibau, but our model sees only 47%. That 10-point gap favoring Parke is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Cathal Pendred (4-1) taking on Sean Spencer (3-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Pendred.

Pendred is rated at 1015 — 153 points above Spencer's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pendred's wrestler game against Spencer's striker approach. Pendred looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Spencer brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spencer throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pendred is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Spencer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cathal Pendred over Sean Spencer. The model gives Pendred a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Pendred at 41% implied while our model sees 64% — a 23-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Lorenz Larkin (4-5) taking on John Howard (7-6). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Larkin.

Larkin is rated at 1501 — 569 points above Howard's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Larkin's striker game against Howard's wrestler approach. Larkin brings a versatile approach, while Howard looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Larkin throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Larkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Howard over Lorenz Larkin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Howard at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Larkin, but our model sees only 49%. That 9-point gap favoring Howard is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Wade (4-2) taking on Zhang Lipeng (2-1).

Wade is rated at 1133 — 217 points above Lipeng's 916. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lipeng throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.5 more per 15 minutes. Wade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Wade over Zhang Lipeng. We're leaning Wade here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 82% for Wade, but our model sees only 67%. That 15-point gap favoring Lipeng is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Paddy Holohan (3-1) taking on Shane Howell (0-1).

Holohan is rated at 1041 — 225 points above Howell's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holohan throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Holohan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Holohan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paddy Holohan over Shane Howell. The model is firm on this one: Holohan at 76%.

The Lightweight matchup features Johnny Case (4-1) taking on Frankie Perez (1-2).

Case is rated at 1049 — 153 points above Perez's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Case throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Case over Frankie Perez. The model gives Case a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Rosa (5-7) taking on Sean Soriano (0-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rosa at 817 versus Soriano at 694. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Rosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Rosa over Sean Soriano. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rosa at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Rosa, but our model sees only 51%. That 5-point gap favoring Soriano is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Sean O'Connell (2-4) taking on Matt Van Buren (0-1).

O'Connell is rated at 903 — 167 points above Buren's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Connell throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Buren is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. O'Connell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean O'Connell over Matt Van Buren. The model gives O'Connell a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Joby Sanchez (1-3) taking on Tateki Matsuda (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Matsuda at 873 versus Sanchez at 731. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matsuda throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Matsuda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joby Sanchez over Tateki Matsuda. The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.