UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux lands on Saturday, November 8, 2014 in Uberlandia, Minas Gerais, Brazil with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux vs Mauricio RuaLight Heavyweight | Ovince Saint Preux | Lean | 64% |
| Warlley Alves vs Alan JoubanWelterweight | Warlley Alves | Strong | 78% |
| Claudio Silva vs Leon EdwardsWelterweight | Claudio Silva | Lean | 57% |
| Dhiego Lima vs Jorge de OliveiraWelterweight | Dhiego Lima | Confident | 70% |
| Juliana Lima vs Nina NunesWomen's Strawweight | Nina Nunes | Toss-up | 50% |
| Diego Rivas vs Rodolfo Rubio PerezFeatherweight | Diego Rivas | Toss-up | 52% |
| Caio Magalhaes vs Trevor SmithMiddleweight | Caio Magalhaes | Confident | 69% |
| Leandro Silva vs Charlie BrennemanLightweight | Leandro Silva | Lean | 58% |
| Thomas Almeida vs Tim GormanBantamweight | Thomas Almeida | Strong | 77% |
| Colby Covington vs Wagner SilvaWelterweight | Colby Covington | Strong | 84% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Ovince Saint Preux vs Mauricio Rua
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-12) taking on Mauricio Rua (11-11-1). Preux is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Preux carries a modest Elo edge (917 to 876), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rua throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Preux has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Mauricio Rua. The model gives Preux a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Warlley Alves vs Alan Jouban
The Welterweight matchup features Warlley Alves (8-7) taking on Alan Jouban (7-5).
Jouban is rated at 1168 — 273 points above Alves's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jouban brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Alves the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jouban throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Warlley Alves over Alan Jouban. The model is firm on this one: Alves at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Alves at 68% implied while our model sees 78% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.
Claudio Silva vs Leon Edwards
The Welterweight matchup features Claudio Silva (5-2) taking on Leon Edwards (14-4). Edwards is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Edwards is rated at 1596 — 543 points above Silva's 1053. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Silva the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Claudio Silva over Leon Edwards. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Silva at 37% implied while our model sees 57% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.
Dhiego Lima vs Jorge de Oliveira
The Welterweight matchup features Dhiego Lima (4-6) taking on Jorge de Oliveira (0-1).
Lima is rated at 943 — 158 points above Oliveira's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dhiego Lima over Jorge de Oliveira. We're leaning Lima here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Juliana Lima vs Nina Nunes
The Women's Strawweight matchup features Juliana Lima (3-3) taking on Nina Nunes (4-4).
Nunes is rated at 1155 — 254 points above Lima's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Lima's striker game against Nunes's all-rounder approach. Lima brings a versatile approach, while Nunes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nina Nunes over Juliana Lima. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nunes at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Lima at 42% implied while our model sees 50% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.
Diego Rivas vs Rodolfo Rubio Perez
The Featherweight matchup features Diego Rivas (2-1) taking on Rodolfo Rubio Perez (0-0).
Rivas carries a modest Elo edge (960 to 915), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Diego Rivas over Rodolfo Rubio Perez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rivas at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.
Caio Magalhaes vs Trevor Smith
The Middleweight matchup features Caio Magalhaes (4-2) taking on Trevor Smith (5-6). Smith is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Magalhaes is rated at 1099 — 165 points above Smith's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Magalhaes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Smith looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Smith the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Magalhaes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Caio Magalhaes over Trevor Smith. We're leaning Magalhaes here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.
Leandro Silva vs Charlie Brenneman
The Lightweight matchup features Leandro Silva (3-3) taking on Charlie Brenneman (4-6).
Silva is rated at 1049 — 332 points above Brenneman's 717. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Silva's all-rounder game against Brenneman's striker approach. Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brenneman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brenneman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Leandro Silva over Charlie Brenneman. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.
Thomas Almeida vs Tim Gorman
The Bantamweight matchup features Thomas Almeida (5-4) taking on Tim Gorman (0-1).
Almeida carries a modest Elo edge (951 to 880), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gorman throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gorman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Thomas Almeida over Tim Gorman. The model is firm on this one: Almeida at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.
Colby Covington vs Wagner Silva
The Welterweight matchup features Colby Covington (12-4) taking on Wagner Silva (0-1).
Covington is rated at 1630 — 777 points above Silva's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.2 more per 15 minutes. Covington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Colby Covington over Wagner Silva. The model is firm on this one: Covington at 84%.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.