UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
Saturday, September 20, 2014·Saitama, Japan
Model Record: 5/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightMISS
Mark Hunt won by KO/TKO (R2)
Hunt 49%51% Nelson
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +76(favors Hunt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Hunt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Hunt)
LightweightHIT
Myles Jury won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jury 76%24% Gomi
STRONG
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +203(favors Jury)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Gomi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Jury)
WelterweightMISS
Yoshihiro Akiyama won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Akiyama 48%52% Sadollah
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -149(favors Sadollah)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Sadollah)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Akiyama)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Miesha Tate won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tate 61%39% Nakai
LEAN
→Elo gap: -53(favors Nakai)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Tate)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Tate)
WelterweightMISS
Kiichi Kunimoto won by Decision - Split (R3)
Kunimoto 41%59% Walsh
LEAN
→Elo gap: +32(favors Kunimoto)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Walsh)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Walsh)
FlyweightHIT
Kyoji Horiguchi won by KO/TKO (R1)
Horiguchi 59%41% Reyes
LEAN
→Elo gap: +233(favors Horiguchi)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.9(favors Reyes)
BantamweightMISS
Masanori Kanehara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kanehara 41%59% Caceres
LEAN
→Elo gap: -136(favors Caceres)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Caceres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Caceres)
FeatherweightMISS
Katsunori Kikuno won by Submission (R2)
Kikuno 39%61% Sicilia
LEAN
→Elo gap: -29(favors Sicilia)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Sicilia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Sicilia)
WelterweightHIT
Hyun Gyu Lim won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lim 78%22% Sato
STRONG
→Elo gap: +192(favors Lim)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.5(favors Lim)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Lim)
BantamweightMISS
Kyung Ho Kang won by Decision - Split (R3)
Kang 47%53% Tanaka
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -74(favors Tanaka)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Kang)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Kang)
LightweightHIT
Johnny Case won by Submission (R2)
Case 50%50% Tokudome
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +71(favors Case)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Tokudome)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Tokudome)
FeatherweightMISS
Maximo Blanco won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Blanco 43%57% Hooker
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -113(favors Hooker)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Hooker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Blanco)