UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Jim Miller (27-17). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Miller is rated at 1213 — 159 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Cerrone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Jim Miller. We're leaning Cerrone here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Evan Dunham (11-8-1). Barboza will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Barboza at 1142 versus Dunham at 1019. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Barboza's knockout artist game against Dunham's all-rounder approach. Barboza is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Dunham is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dunham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Dunham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edson Barboza over Evan Dunham. The model gives Barboza a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Rick Story (12-6) taking on Leonardo Mafra (1-2).

Story is rated at 1358 — 494 points above Mafra's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Story throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Story is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rick Story over Leonardo Mafra. We're leaning Story here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Proctor (4-3) taking on Justin Salas (3-3). Proctor is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Proctor at 947 versus Salas at 843. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Proctor is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Salas brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Proctor the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salas throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Salas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Salas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Proctor over Justin Salas. The model gives Proctor a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features John Lineker (12-3) taking on Alptekin Ozkilic (1-2).

Lineker is rated at 1455 — 644 points above Ozkilic's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ozkilic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Ozkilic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Lineker over Alptekin Ozkilic. We're leaning Lineker here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Lucas Martins (3-3) taking on Alex White (4-5).

Martins is rated at 1095 — 189 points above White's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Martins's all-rounder game against White's knockout artist approach. Martins is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while White is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. White throws significantly more leather — a 9.3 sig. strike per minute gap. White is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. White has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex White over Lucas Martins. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward White at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on Pat Healy (0-4).

Tibau is rated at 1019 — 202 points above Healy's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Healy throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Tibau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Pat Healy. We're leaning Tibau here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Leslie Smith (3-3) taking on Jessamyn Duke (1-2). Duke is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Smith is rated at 1116 — 354 points above Duke's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duke throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Duke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Duke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessamyn Duke over Leslie Smith. The model gives Duke a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Hugo Viana (3-2). Sterling will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 815 points above Viana's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sterling's wrestler game against Viana's striker approach. Sterling looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Viana brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Viana throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sterling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Viana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Hugo Viana. The model gives Sterling a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Yosdenis Cedeno (1-2) taking on Jerrod Sanders (1-1). Sanders will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Cedeno at 880, Sanders at 908. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cedeno throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sanders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yosdenis Cedeno over Jerrod Sanders. The model gives Cedeno a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Claudia Gadelha (7-4) taking on Tina Lahdemaki (0-0).

Gadelha is rated at 1187 — 272 points above Lahdemaki's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lahdemaki throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lahdemaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lahdemaki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tina Lahdemaki over Claudia Gadelha. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lahdemaki at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.