UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Alexandre Pantoja (14-3) taking on Kai Asakura (0-1). Asakura is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pantoja is rated at 1497 — 557 points above Asakura's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pantoja rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pantoja throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pantoja is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Asakura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandre Pantoja over Kai Asakura. The model gives Pantoja a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight championship matchup features Shavkat Rakhmonov (6-0) taking on Ian Machado Garry (9-1). Rakhmonov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rakhmonov carries a modest Elo edge (1831 to 1787), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Rakhmonov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Rakhmonov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Garry is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rakhmonov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garry throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rakhmonov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Garry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov over Ian Machado Garry. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rakhmonov at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ciryl Gane (10-2) taking on Alexander Volkov (12-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Volkov.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gane at 1884 versus Volkov at 1754. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Gane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Gane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Alexander Volkov. The model gives Gane a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Bryce Mitchell (8-3) taking on Kron Gracie (1-2).

Mitchell is rated at 1355 — 413 points above Gracie's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gracie throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Mitchell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryce Mitchell over Kron Gracie. The model is firm on this one: Mitchell at 85%.

The Featherweight matchup features Dooho Choi (4-3-1) taking on Nate Landwehr (5-4).

Choi is rated at 1314 — 335 points above Landwehr's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Landwehr throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Landwehr is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Landwehr has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Landwehr over Dooho Choi. The model gives Landwehr a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dominick Reyes (9-4) taking on Anthony Smith (13-11).

Reyes is rated at 1529 — 459 points above Smith's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Reyes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Reyes's knockout artist game against Smith's all-rounder approach. Reyes is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Smith over Dominick Reyes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smith at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Themba Gorimbo (4-2). Gorimbo is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Luque is rated at 1250 — 165 points above Gorimbo's 1085. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Luque is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gorimbo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gorimbo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gorimbo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Gorimbo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Themba Gorimbo over Vicente Luque. The model gives Gorimbo a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Movsar Evloev (8-0) taking on Aljamain Sterling (16-5).

Evloev carries a modest Elo edge (1715 to 1683), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Evloev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evloev throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Evloev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Evloev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Movsar Evloev over Aljamain Sterling. The model gives Evloev a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Battle (6-1) taking on Randy Brown (14-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Battle at 1469 versus Brown at 1381. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Battle's all-rounder game against Brown's knockout artist approach. Battle is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brown is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Battle throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Battle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Brown over Bryan Battle. The model gives Brown a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Catch Weight matchup features Eryk Anders (9-8) taking on Chris Weidman (12-7). Weidman will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Anders carries a modest Elo edge (1106 to 1060), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Anders's striker game against Weidman's wrestler approach. Anders brings a versatile approach, while Weidman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anders throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Anders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Weidman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eryk Anders over Chris Weidman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Anders at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Joshua Van (8-1) taking on Cody Durden (6-6-1). Durden is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Van is rated at 1678 — 831 points above Durden's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Van rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Van's striker game against Durden's wrestler approach. Van brings a versatile approach, while Durden looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Van throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Van has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joshua Van over Cody Durden. We're leaning Van here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (13-7) taking on Max Griffin (8-9).

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 339 points above Griffin's 1152. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Chiesa's wrestler game against Griffin's striker approach. Chiesa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Griffin brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Max Griffin. The model gives Chiesa a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Chase Hooper (8-3) taking on Clay Guida (18-18). Hooper is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Hooper is rated at 1175 — 249 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hooper rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Hooper is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Guida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hooper the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooper throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Hooper over Clay Guida. We're leaning Hooper here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6) taking on Lukasz Brzeski (1-5). Nzechukwu is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Nzechukwu is rated at 1071 — 264 points above Brzeski's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nzechukwu's all-rounder game against Brzeski's striker approach. Nzechukwu is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brzeski brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nzechukwu throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Brzeski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Brzeski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu over Lukasz Brzeski. The model gives Nzechukwu a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.