UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi lands on Saturday, May 31, 2014 in Berlin, Germany with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gegard Mousasi vs Mark MunozMiddleweight | Gegard Mousasi | Lean | 59% |
| CB Dollaway vs Francis CarmontMiddleweight | Francis Carmont | Lean | 56% |
| Sean Strickland vs Luke BarnattMiddleweight | Sean Strickland | Confident | 73% |
| Niklas Backstrom vs Tom NiinimakiFeatherweight | Tom Niinimaki | Confident | 67% |
| Nick Hein vs Drew DoberLightweight | Drew Dober | Toss-up | 55% |
| Magnus Cedenblad vs Krzysztof JotkoMiddleweight | Krzysztof Jotko | Lean | 64% |
| Iuri Alcantara vs Vaughan LeeBantamweight | Iuri Alcantara | Lean | 62% |
| Peter Sobotta vs Pawel PawlakWelterweight | Pawel Pawlak | Lean | 60% |
| Maximo Blanco vs Andy OgleFeatherweight | Maximo Blanco | Lean | 61% |
| Ruslan Magomedov vs Viktor PestaHeavyweight | Viktor Pesta | Lean | 60% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Gegard Mousasi vs Mark Munoz
The Middleweight matchup features Gegard Mousasi (8-3) taking on Mark Munoz (8-6). Mousasi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Mousasi is rated at 1761 — 679 points above Munoz's 1082. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mousasi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.
The style clash matters here: Mousasi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Munoz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Munoz the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Mousasi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gegard Mousasi over Mark Munoz. The model gives Mousasi a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
CB Dollaway vs Francis Carmont
The Middleweight matchup features CB Dollaway (11-8) taking on Francis Carmont (6-2).
Carmont is rated at 1167 — 202 points above Dollaway's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Dollaway throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Carmont has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Francis Carmont over CB Dollaway. The model gives Carmont a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Sean Strickland vs Luke Barnatt
The Middleweight matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Luke Barnatt (3-2). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Barnatt.
Strickland is rated at 1813 — 851 points above Barnatt's 962. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Barnatt throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Strickland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Sean Strickland over Luke Barnatt. We're leaning Strickland here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Niklas Backstrom vs Tom Niinimaki
The Featherweight matchup features Niklas Backstrom (1-1) taking on Tom Niinimaki (1-2).
There's a real Elo separation here: Backstrom at 875 versus Niinimaki at 771. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Niinimaki throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Niinimaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Backstrom has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tom Niinimaki over Niklas Backstrom. We're leaning Niinimaki here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Nick Hein vs Drew Dober
The Lightweight matchup features Nick Hein (4-3) taking on Drew Dober (13-11). Dober is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Dober is rated at 1083 — 264 points above Hein's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Hein's striker game against Dober's all-rounder approach. Hein brings a versatile approach, while Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dober is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Drew Dober over Nick Hein. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dober at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Magnus Cedenblad vs Krzysztof Jotko
The Middleweight matchup features Magnus Cedenblad (4-1) taking on Krzysztof Jotko (11-5). Cedenblad is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Jotko is rated at 1222 — 158 points above Cedenblad's 1063. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Cedenblad rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.
Stylistically this is Cedenblad's wrestler game against Jotko's striker approach. Cedenblad looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jotko brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Cedenblad throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jotko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Jotko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Krzysztof Jotko over Magnus Cedenblad. The model gives Jotko a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Iuri Alcantara vs Vaughan Lee
The Bantamweight matchup features Iuri Alcantara (10-6) taking on Vaughan Lee (3-4). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Alcantara is rated at 1046 — 155 points above Lee's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Iuri Alcantara over Vaughan Lee. The model gives Alcantara a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Peter Sobotta vs Pawel Pawlak
The Welterweight matchup features Peter Sobotta (4-5) taking on Pawel Pawlak (1-1).
Sobotta is rated at 1083 — 185 points above Pawlak's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sobotta throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobotta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Pawlak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Pawel Pawlak over Peter Sobotta. The model gives Pawlak a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Maximo Blanco vs Andy Ogle
The Featherweight matchup features Maximo Blanco (4-4) taking on Andy Ogle (1-4).
Blanco is rated at 1013 — 289 points above Ogle's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Blanco's all-rounder game against Ogle's striker approach. Blanco is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ogle brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Blanco throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Blanco is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Blanco has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Maximo Blanco over Andy Ogle. The model gives Blanco a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Ruslan Magomedov vs Viktor Pesta
The Heavyweight matchup features Ruslan Magomedov (2-0) taking on Viktor Pesta (1-3).
Magomedov is rated at 1265 — 509 points above Pesta's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pesta throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pesta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pesta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Viktor Pesta over Ruslan Magomedov. The model gives Pesta a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.