UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Tim Kennedy (3-1) taking on Michael Bisping (20-8).

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 295 points above Kennedy's 1227. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kennedy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Bisping over Tim Kennedy. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bisping at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Patrick Cote (10-10) taking on Kyle Noke (6-5).

Cote is rated at 1221 — 352 points above Noke's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cote is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Noke is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Noke the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cote throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Noke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Noke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Noke over Patrick Cote. The model is firm on this one: Noke at 76%.

The Middleweight matchup features Elias Theodorou (8-2) taking on Sheldon Westcott (0-2). Theodorou will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Theodorou is rated at 1270 — 360 points above Westcott's 909. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Theodorou rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Westcott throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Westcott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Westcott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elias Theodorou over Sheldon Westcott. The model gives Theodorou a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Chad Laprise (6-3) taking on Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Aubin-Mercier at 1070 versus Laprise at 927. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Laprise's striker game against Aubin-Mercier's wrestler approach. Laprise brings a versatile approach, while Aubin-Mercier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aubin-Mercier throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Aubin-Mercier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Aubin-Mercier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Olivier Aubin-Mercier over Chad Laprise. The model gives Aubin-Mercier a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Akira Corassani (3-2). Poirier will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 815 points above Corassani's 866. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Poirier's all-rounder game against Corassani's striker approach. Poirier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Corassani brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Poirier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Akira Corassani. The model gives Poirier a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features KJ Noons (2-2) taking on Sam Stout (9-10).

There's a real Elo separation here: Noons at 887 versus Stout at 756. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Stout is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Noons has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Stout over KJ Noons. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stout at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Sarah Kaufman (1-1) taking on Leslie Smith (3-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Smith.

Smith is rated at 1116 — 201 points above Kaufman's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kaufman throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sarah Kaufman over Leslie Smith. The model gives Kaufman a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Jimmo (3-3) taking on Sean O'Connell (2-4).

Jimmo carries a modest Elo edge (974 to 903), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Jimmo's striker game against O'Connell's all-rounder approach. Jimmo brings a versatile approach, while O'Connell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jimmo throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Jimmo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. O'Connell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Jimmo over Sean O'Connell. The model gives Jimmo a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features George Roop (5-7) taking on Dustin Kimura (2-2). There's a 6-inch height gap favoring Roop.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Roop at 881, Kimura at 907. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roop throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Roop is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Kimura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: George Roop over Dustin Kimura. The model gives Roop a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Mark Bocek (7-5) taking on Mike de la Torre (2-3). Bocek will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bocek is rated at 1230 — 294 points above Torre's 936. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bocek's wrestler game against Torre's striker approach. Bocek looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Torre brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bocek throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bocek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Torre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Bocek over Mike de la Torre. The model gives Bocek a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Nordine Taleb (7-4) taking on Vik Grujic (1-2).

Taleb is rated at 976 — 169 points above Grujic's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grujic throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Grujic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Grujic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nordine Taleb over Vik Grujic. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Taleb at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Richard Walsh (2-3) taking on Chris Indich (0-1).

Walsh carries a modest Elo edge (842 to 788), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Indich throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Indich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Indich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Indich over Richard Walsh. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Indich at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mitch Gagnon (4-3) taking on Tim Gorman (0-1).

Gagnon carries a modest Elo edge (955 to 880), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gagnon throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gagnon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Gorman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mitch Gagnon over Tim Gorman. The model is firm on this one: Gagnon at 80%.