UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on Mark Munoz (8-6). Machida will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Machida is rated at 1493 — 411 points above Munoz's 1082. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Machida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Munoz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Munoz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lyoto Machida over Mark Munoz. The model gives Machida a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Ross Pearson (12-12) taking on Melvin Guillard (12-8).

Guillard is rated at 1177 — 328 points above Pearson's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pearson's striker game against Guillard's all-rounder approach. Pearson brings a versatile approach, while Guillard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melvin Guillard over Ross Pearson. We're leaning Guillard here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimi Manuwa (6-5) taking on Ryan Jimmo (3-3). Manuwa will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Manuwa at 1070 versus Jimmo at 974. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Manuwa's all-rounder game against Jimmo's striker approach. Manuwa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jimmo brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Manuwa throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Manuwa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Jimmo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Jimmo over Jimi Manuwa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jimmo at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Norman Parke (5-2-1) taking on Jon Tuck (4-4). Tuck will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Parke at 1101 versus Tuck at 1006. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Parke's striker game against Tuck's wrestler approach. Parke brings a versatile approach, while Tuck looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parke throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Parke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Parke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Norman Parke over Jon Tuck. The model is firm on this one: Parke at 75%.

The Middleweight matchup features Nicholas Musoke (3-2) taking on Alessio Sakara (6-7). Musoke will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Musoke at 937, Sakara at 931. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Musoke's wrestler game against Sakara's striker approach. Musoke looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sakara brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sakara throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sakara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Musoke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nicholas Musoke over Alessio Sakara. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Musoke at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features John Lineker (12-3) taking on Phil Harris (1-2).

Lineker is rated at 1455 — 615 points above Harris's 840. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Lineker over Phil Harris. We're leaning Lineker here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Al Iaquinta (9-5) taking on Piotr Hallmann (2-3).

Iaquinta is rated at 1195 — 313 points above Hallmann's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Iaquinta's striker game against Hallmann's wrestler approach. Iaquinta brings a versatile approach, while Hallmann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Iaquinta throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hallmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Iaquinta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Piotr Hallmann over Al Iaquinta. The model gives Hallmann a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Luke Barnatt (3-2) taking on Andrew Craig (3-3). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Barnatt.

There's a real Elo separation here: Barnatt at 962 versus Craig at 852. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Barnatt's all-rounder game against Craig's striker approach. Barnatt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Craig brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barnatt throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Barnatt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Barnatt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Barnatt over Andrew Craig. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barnatt at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Rosi Sexton (0-1).

Andrade is rated at 1115 — 305 points above Sexton's 810. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sexton throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Rosi Sexton. We're leaning Andrade here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Cole Miller (10-8) taking on Andy Ogle (1-4). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Miller is rated at 891 — 167 points above Ogle's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Miller's wrestler game against Ogle's striker approach. Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ogle brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ogle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andy Ogle over Cole Miller. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ogle at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Jimy Hettes (3-2) taking on Robert Whiteford (2-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hettes at 931, Whiteford at 959. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hettes throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hettes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.1 more per 15 minutes. Whiteford has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimy Hettes over Robert Whiteford. The model gives Hettes a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Scott (3-4) taking on Michael Kuiper (1-2). Scott will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Scott carries a modest Elo edge (884 to 831), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Scott throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kuiper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Scott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Scott over Michael Kuiper. The model gives Scott a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.