UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chael Sonnen (7-6) taking on Mauricio Rua (11-11-1). Rua will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sonnen is rated at 1430 — 554 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sonnen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rua is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sonnen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sonnen throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sonnen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Sonnen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chael Sonnen over Mauricio Rua. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sonnen at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Travis Browne (9-6-1) taking on Alistair Overeem (12-7).

Overeem is rated at 1412 — 281 points above Browne's 1131. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Browne's submission artist game against Overeem's striker approach. Browne is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Overeem brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Overeem throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Browne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Overeem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Travis Browne over Alistair Overeem. The model gives Browne a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Urijah Faber (11-6) taking on Iuri Alcantara (10-6). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Faber is rated at 1297 — 251 points above Alcantara's 1046. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Faber's wrestler game against Alcantara's knockout artist approach. Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alcantara is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Faber throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Faber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Urijah Faber over Iuri Alcantara. The model gives Faber a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on Mike Pyle (10-8).

Brown is rated at 1201 — 369 points above Pyle's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Brown is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pyle is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Pyle the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Brown over Mike Pyle. We're leaning Brown here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features John Howard (7-6) taking on Uriah Hall (10-8). Hall is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Hall is rated at 1378 — 446 points above Howard's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Howard's all-rounder game against Hall's striker approach. Howard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hall brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uriah Hall over John Howard. The model gives Hall a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (15-15) taking on Joe Lauzon (14-12).

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 209 points above Lauzon's 1036. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Lauzon's submission artist approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Lauzon is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Michael Johnson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lauzon at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Michael McDonald (6-2) taking on Brad Pickett (5-8). McDonald is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

McDonald is rated at 1193 — 359 points above Pickett's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pickett throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Pickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael McDonald over Brad Pickett. The model gives McDonald a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Conor McGregor (10-3) taking on Max Holloway (22-8). McGregor will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 325 points above McGregor's 1573. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGregor throws significantly more leather — a 12.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Holloway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Conor McGregor over Max Holloway. The model gives McGregor a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Steven Siler (5-3) taking on Mike Brown (2-3). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Siler.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brown at 982 versus Siler at 888. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Siler's wrestler game against Brown's striker approach. Siler looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brown brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Siler throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steven Siler over Mike Brown. We're leaning Siler here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Brandao (6-3) taking on Daniel Pineda (5-7). Pineda will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Brandao is rated at 1131 — 152 points above Pineda's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pineda throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pineda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Brandao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Brandao over Daniel Pineda. We're leaning Brandao here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Manvel Gamburyan (6-7) taking on Cole Miller (10-8). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gamburyan at 972 versus Miller at 891. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamburyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manvel Gamburyan over Cole Miller. The model gives Gamburyan a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-12) taking on Cody Donovan (1-2). Preux will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Preux is rated at 917 — 181 points above Donovan's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Preux throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Donovan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Donovan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Cody Donovan. The model gives Preux a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features James Vick (9-4) taking on Ramsey Nijem (5-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Vick.

There's a real Elo separation here: Vick at 1026 versus Nijem at 944. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Vick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nijem looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nijem the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nijem throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Nijem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Vick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramsey Nijem over James Vick. The model gives Nijem a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.