UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Saturday, July 27, 2013·Seattle, Washington, USA
Model Record: 12/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FlyweightHIT
Demetrious Johnson won by Submission (R5)
Johnson 53%47% Moraga
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +54(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Moraga)
WelterweightHIT
Rory MacDonald won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
MacDonald 72%28% Ellenberger
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Ellenberger)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors MacDonald)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors MacDonald)
WelterweightHIT
Robbie Lawler won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lawler 68%32% Voelker
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +285(favors Lawler)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Voelker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Voelker)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Liz Carmouche won by KO/TKO (R2)
Carmouche 56%44% Andrade
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Carmouche)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Andrade)
LightweightHIT
Jorge Masvidal won by Submission (R2)
Masvidal 58%42% Chiesa
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -49(favors Chiesa)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Masvidal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Masvidal)
LightweightHIT
Danny Castillo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Castillo 66%34% Means
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +139(favors Castillo)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.8(favors Castillo)
LightweightHIT
Melvin Guillard won by KO/TKO (R2)
Guillard 57%43% Danzig
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +29(favors Guillard)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Danzig)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Danzig)
LightweightHIT
Daron Cruickshank won by Decision - Split (R3)
Cruickshank 61%39% Edwards
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -49(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Cruickshank)
MiddleweightHIT
Ed Herman won by Decision - Split (R3)
Herman 54%46% Smith
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +370(favors Herman)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Herman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Herman)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Germaine de Randamie won by Decision - Split (R3)
Randamie 61%39% Kedzie
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Kedzie)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Kedzie)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kedzie)
LightweightHIT
Justin Salas won by Decision - Split (R3)
Salas 56%44% Riley
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +40(favors Salas)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Salas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Salas)
BantamweightHIT
Yaotzin Meza won by Submission (R2)
Meza 52%48% Albert
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +139(favors Meza)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Albert)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Albert)