UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Wanderlei Silva (4-7) taking on Brian Stann (6-4).

Silva is rated at 1282 — 205 points above Stann's 1077. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stann throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brian Stann over Wanderlei Silva. The model gives Stann a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mark Hunt (8-7-1) taking on Stefan Struve (13-10). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 12-inch reach advantage.

Hunt is rated at 1169 — 291 points above Struve's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hunt brings a versatile approach, while Struve is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Struve the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Struve throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hunt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Hunt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Hunt over Stefan Struve. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hunt at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Takanori Gomi (4-8). Sanchez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 408 points above Gomi's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomi throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Gomi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Sanchez over Takanori Gomi. We're leaning Sanchez here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-6) taking on Hector Lombard (3-7). Okami is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Okami at 1061 versus Lombard at 964. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Okami's striker game against Lombard's all-rounder approach. Okami brings a versatile approach, while Lombard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lombard throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lombard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yushin Okami over Hector Lombard. We're leaning Okami here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-5-1) taking on Mizuto Hirota (1-4-1).

Yahya is rated at 1030 — 253 points above Hirota's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Yahya's wrestler game against Hirota's striker approach. Yahya looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hirota brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yahya throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Yahya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Hirota has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mizuto Hirota over Rani Yahya. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hirota at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-3) taking on Siyar Bahadurzada (4-3). Kim is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Kim is rated at 1318 — 232 points above Bahadurzada's 1086. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Kim looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bahadurzada is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kim the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bahadurzada throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Bahadurzada has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over Siyar Bahadurzada. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kim at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Riki Fukuda (2-2).

Fukuda carries a modest Elo edge (967 to 925), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fukuda throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fukuda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Fukuda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Tavares over Riki Fukuda. We're leaning Tavares here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Takeya Mizugaki (8-5) taking on Bryan Caraway (6-3).

Caraway is rated at 1191 — 197 points above Mizugaki's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Mizugaki's striker game against Caraway's wrestler approach. Mizugaki brings a versatile approach, while Caraway looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mizugaki throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Caraway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Caraway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryan Caraway over Takeya Mizugaki. The model gives Caraway a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Kazuki Tokudome (1-2) taking on Cristiano Marcello (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Tokudome at 841, Marcello at 848. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marcello throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Marcello is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tokudome has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kazuki Tokudome over Cristiano Marcello. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tokudome at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Kyung Ho Kang (8-4).

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 203 points above Kang's 1029. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Caceres's knockout artist game against Kang's all-rounder approach. Caceres is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Kang is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Kang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Kyung Ho Kang. The model gives Caceres a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Hyun Gyu Lim (3-3) taking on Marcelo Guimaraes (2-1). Lim is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Guimaraes carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 875), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guimaraes throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Guimaraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcelo Guimaraes over Hyun Gyu Lim. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Guimaraes at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.