UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Vitor Belfort (15-9). Jones is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 906 points above Belfort's 1255. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Jones's wrestler game against Belfort's knockout artist approach. Jones looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Jones over Vitor Belfort. The model is firm on this one: Jones at 90%.

The Flyweight championship matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on Joseph Benavidez (15-5).

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 312 points above Benavidez's 1291. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Benavidez's wrestler approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Benavidez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benavidez throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joseph Benavidez over Demetrious Johnson. The model gives Benavidez a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Brian Stann (6-4).

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 445 points above Stann's 1077. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bisping brings a versatile approach, while Stann is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Stann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Bisping over Brian Stann. The model gives Bisping a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Matt Hamill (10-4) taking on Roger Hollett (0-1).

Hamill is rated at 1150 — 288 points above Hollett's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamill throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Hollett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Hamill over Roger Hollett. We're leaning Hamill here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (14-10) taking on Charles Oliveira (23-11). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 590 points above Swanson's 1255. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Swanson's striker game against Oliveira's submission artist approach. Swanson brings a versatile approach, while Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Swanson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Cub Swanson. The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vinny Magalhaes (1-3) taking on Igor Pokrajac (4-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Magalhaes.

There's a real Elo separation here: Magalhaes at 885 versus Pokrajac at 764. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pokrajac throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Magalhaes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Magalhaes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vinny Magalhaes over Igor Pokrajac. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Magalhaes at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features TJ Grant (7-3) taking on Evan Dunham (11-8-1).

Grant is rated at 1640 — 620 points above Dunham's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Grant rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Dunham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Evan Dunham over TJ Grant. The model gives Dunham a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Pierson (3-2) taking on Lance Benoist (1-2). Pierson will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pierson is rated at 1239 — 215 points above Benoist's 1024. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pierson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Benoist is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Pierson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lance Benoist over Sean Pierson. The model gives Benoist a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Marcus Brimage (4-3) taking on Jimy Hettes (3-2). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Hettes.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hettes at 931 versus Brimage at 806. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Brimage's striker game against Hettes's wrestler approach. Brimage brings a versatile approach, while Hettes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brimage throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hettes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.8 more per 15 minutes. Brimage has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimy Hettes over Marcus Brimage. The model gives Hettes a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Seth Baczynski (5-5) taking on Simeon Thoresen (1-1). Thoresen will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Thoresen at 909 versus Baczynski at 796. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thoresen throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Thoresen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Thoresen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Simeon Thoresen over Seth Baczynski. The model gives Thoresen a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mitch Gagnon (4-3) taking on Walel Watson (1-2). Watson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gagnon at 955 versus Watson at 807. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gagnon throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gagnon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Gagnon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mitch Gagnon over Walel Watson. We're leaning Gagnon here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Kyle Noke (6-5) taking on Charlie Brenneman (4-6). Noke is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Noke is rated at 869 — 152 points above Brenneman's 717. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Noke's wrestler game against Brenneman's striker approach. Noke looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brenneman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Noke throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Noke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Noke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Noke over Charlie Brenneman. The model gives Noke a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.