UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
Saturday, August 4, 2012·Los Angeles, California, USA
Model Record: 8/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Mauricio Rua won by KO/TKO (R4)
Rua 51%49% Vera
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +308(favors Rua)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Rua)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Rua)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Lyoto Machida won by KO/TKO (R2)
Machida 38%62% Bader
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +92(favors Machida)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Bader)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Bader)
LightweightHIT
Joe Lauzon won by Submission (R3)
Lauzon 56%44% Varner
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -78(favors Varner)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -7.6(favors Varner)
WelterweightHIT
Mike Swick won by KO/TKO (R2)
Swick 62%38% Johnson
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +286(favors Swick)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Swick)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Johnson)
FeatherweightHIT
Nam Phan won by Decision - Split (R3)
Phan 55%45% Miller
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -219(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Phan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Miller)
Light Heavyweight
Davis 74%26% Prado
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +556(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Davis)
FeatherweightHIT
Rani Yahya won by Submission (R1)
Yahya 61%39% Grispi
LEAN
→Elo gap: +180(favors Yahya)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Yahya)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Grispi)
HeavyweightHIT
Philip De Fries won by Submission (R2)
Fries 76%24% Thompson
STRONG
→Elo gap: +107(favors Fries)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Fries)
FeatherweightHIT
Manvel Gamburyan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gamburyan 54%46% Omigawa
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -74(favors Omigawa)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Omigawa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Gamburyan)
FlyweightHIT
John Moraga won by KO/TKO (R1)
Moraga 54%46% Gomez
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Gomez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Gomez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gomez)