UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2 lands on Saturday, June 23, 2012 in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil with 11 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rich Franklin vs Wanderlei SilvaCatch Weight | Rich Franklin | Toss-up | 50% |
| Cezar Ferreira vs Sergio MoraesMiddleweight | Cezar Ferreira | Lean | 57% |
| Rony Jason vs Godofredo PepeyFeatherweight | Godofredo Pepey | Lean | 64% |
| Fabricio Werdum vs Mike RussowHeavyweight | Fabricio Werdum | Toss-up | 55% |
| Hacran Dias vs Iuri AlcantaraFeatherweight | Iuri Alcantara | Lean | 57% |
| Rodrigo Damm vs Anistavio MedeirosFeatherweight | Anistavio Medeiros | Lean | 63% |
| Francisco Trinaldo vs Delson HelenoMiddleweight | Delson Heleno | Toss-up | 52% |
| Hugo Viana vs John TeixeiraFeatherweight | John Teixeira | Lean | 64% |
| Thiago Perpetuo vs Leonardo MafraMiddleweight | Leonardo Mafra | Toss-up | 54% |
| Marcos Vinicius vs Wagner CamposFeatherweight | Wagner Campos | Lean | 58% |
| Felipe Arantes vs Milton VieiraFeatherweight | Felipe Arantes | Strong | 78% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Rich Franklin vs Wanderlei Silva
The Catch Weight championship matchup features Rich Franklin (14-5) taking on Wanderlei Silva (4-7). Franklin is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Silva is rated at 1282 — 188 points above Franklin's 1094. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Franklin's all-rounder game against Silva's knockout artist approach. Franklin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Franklin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rich Franklin over Wanderlei Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Franklin at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Cezar Ferreira vs Sergio Moraes
The Middleweight matchup features Cezar Ferreira (9-5) taking on Sergio Moraes (8-4-1). Ferreira will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.
Moraes carries a modest Elo edge (1097 to 1033), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Ferreira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Moraes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ferreira the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Moraes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Moraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cezar Ferreira over Sergio Moraes. The model gives Ferreira a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Rony Jason vs Godofredo Pepey
The Featherweight matchup features Rony Jason (4-3) taking on Godofredo Pepey (5-5).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jason at 1010, Pepey at 1026. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
The style clash matters here: Jason is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pepey looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pepey the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pepey throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pepey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pepey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Godofredo Pepey over Rony Jason. The model gives Pepey a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Fabricio Werdum vs Mike Russow
The Heavyweight matchup features Fabricio Werdum (11-6) taking on Mike Russow (4-1). Werdum is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Werdum is rated at 1495 — 467 points above Russow's 1027. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Werdum's striker game against Russow's wrestler approach. Werdum brings a versatile approach, while Russow looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Werdum throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Russow is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Russow has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Fabricio Werdum over Mike Russow. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Werdum at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Hacran Dias vs Iuri Alcantara
The Featherweight matchup features Hacran Dias (3-4) taking on Iuri Alcantara (10-6).
Alcantara carries a modest Elo edge (1046 to 980), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Dias's wrestler game against Alcantara's knockout artist approach. Dias looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alcantara is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Alcantara throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Dias has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Iuri Alcantara over Hacran Dias. The model gives Alcantara a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Rodrigo Damm vs Anistavio Medeiros
The Featherweight matchup features Rodrigo Damm (3-3) taking on Anistavio Medeiros (0-0).
Medeiros carries a modest Elo edge (890 to 858), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Medeiros throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Medeiros is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Medeiros has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Anistavio Medeiros over Rodrigo Damm. The model gives Medeiros a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Francisco Trinaldo vs Delson Heleno
The Middleweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on Delson Heleno (0-0).
Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 457 points above Heleno's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Heleno throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Heleno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Heleno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Delson Heleno over Francisco Trinaldo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Heleno at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Hugo Viana vs John Teixeira
The Featherweight matchup features Hugo Viana (3-2) taking on John Teixeira (0-0).
Teixeira carries a modest Elo edge (932 to 869), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: John Teixeira over Hugo Viana. The model gives Teixeira a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Thiago Perpetuo vs Leonardo Mafra
The Middleweight matchup features Thiago Perpetuo (1-1) taking on Leonardo Mafra (1-2).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Perpetuo at 855, Mafra at 864. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mafra throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Mafra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mafra has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Leonardo Mafra over Thiago Perpetuo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mafra at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Marcos Vinicius vs Wagner Campos
The Featherweight matchup features Marcos Vinicius (1-1) taking on Wagner Campos (0-0).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Vinicius at 873, Campos at 873. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Campos throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Campos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Campos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Wagner Campos over Marcos Vinicius. The model gives Campos a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Felipe Arantes vs Milton Vieira
The Featherweight matchup features Felipe Arantes (5-5-1) taking on Milton Vieira (0-0-1).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Arantes at 925, Vieira at 918. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Arantes throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Vieira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vieira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Felipe Arantes over Milton Vieira. The model is firm on this one: Arantes at 78%.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.