The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Martin Kampmann (11-5) taking on Jake Ellenberger (10-10). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Kampmann.

Kampmann is rated at 1358 — 511 points above Ellenberger's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Kampmann's wrestler game against Ellenberger's striker approach. Kampmann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ellenberger brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ellenberger throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellenberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Ellenberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Ellenberger over Martin Kampmann. The model gives Ellenberger a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (13-7) taking on Al Iaquinta (9-5). Chiesa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 295 points above Iaquinta's 1195. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Chiesa's wrestler game against Iaquinta's striker approach. Chiesa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Iaquinta brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Iaquinta throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Iaquinta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Iaquinta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Al Iaquinta. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Chiesa at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Jonathan Brookins (2-2).

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 862 points above Brookins's 984. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brookins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Brookins over Charles Oliveira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brookins at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Pat Schilling (0-1).

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 1075 points above Schilling's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Schilling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Holloway over Pat Schilling. We're leaning Holloway here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Justin Lawrence (1-1) taking on John Cofer (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lawrence at 830, Cofer at 801. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cofer throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cofer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cofer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Lawrence over John Cofer. The model gives Lawrence a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Daron Cruickshank (6-5) taking on Chris Tickle (0-0).

Tickle carries a modest Elo edge (915 to 879), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tickle throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tickle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tickle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daron Cruickshank over Chris Tickle. The model gives Cruickshank a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Myles Jury (8-3) taking on Chris Saunders (0-0).

Jury is rated at 1141 — 252 points above Saunders's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saunders throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Saunders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Saunders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Myles Jury over Chris Saunders. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jury at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Sam Sicilia (5-6) taking on Cristiano Marcello (1-2). Marcello will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sicilia at 827, Marcello at 848. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marcello throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Marcello is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Marcello has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Sicilia over Cristiano Marcello. The model gives Sicilia a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Proctor (4-3) taking on Jeremy Larsen (0-2).

Proctor is rated at 947 — 236 points above Larsen's 711. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Larsen throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Larsen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Larsen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Proctor over Jeremy Larsen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Proctor at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Erik Perez (6-2) taking on John Albert (1-3).

Perez is rated at 1303 — 579 points above Albert's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Albert throws significantly more leather — a 10.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Albert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erik Perez over John Albert. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Perez at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.