UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Brandon Royval (7-4) taking on Tatsuro Taira (7-1).

Taira is rated at 1620 — 306 points above Royval's 1314. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Royval throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Taira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Royval has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tatsuro Taira over Brandon Royval. The model gives Taira a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features JunYong Park (9-3) taking on Brad Tavares (16-10). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Tavares.

Park is rated at 1235 — 310 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Park's wrestler game against Tavares's striker approach. Park looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Tavares brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Park is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Park has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: JunYong Park over Brad Tavares. The model gives Park a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Chidi Njokuani (5-4) taking on Jared Gooden (2-4). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Njokuani at 1083 versus Gooden at 960. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Njokuani's all-rounder game against Gooden's knockout artist approach. Njokuani is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gooden is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gooden throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gooden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Njokuani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chidi Njokuani over Jared Gooden. The model gives Njokuani a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-1-1) taking on Rafa Garcia (5-4). Dawson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Garcia at 1419 versus Dawson at 1336. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Grant Dawson over Rafa Garcia. The model gives Dawson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Rodriguez (9-4) taking on Alex Morono (13-9). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez is rated at 1494 — 626 points above Morono's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Morono is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Morono over Daniel Rodriguez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Morono at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Ramazan Temirov (1-0) taking on CJ Vergara (3-4). Vergara is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Temirov is rated at 1242 — 477 points above Vergara's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vergara throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Vergara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Temirov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: CJ Vergara over Ramazan Temirov. The model gives Vergara a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Pat Sabatini (7-2) taking on Jonathan Pearce (5-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Pearce.

Sabatini is rated at 1425 — 429 points above Pearce's 996. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearce throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sabatini is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Pearce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Pearce over Pat Sabatini. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pearce at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Themba Gorimbo (4-2) taking on Niko Price (8-9).

Gorimbo is rated at 1085 — 269 points above Price's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gorimbo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Price is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gorimbo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Price throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gorimbo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Price has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Themba Gorimbo over Niko Price. The model gives Gorimbo a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Tafa (2-4) taking on Sean Sharaf (0-1).

Tafa carries a modest Elo edge (828 to 754), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tafa throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Sharaf is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sharaf has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Tafa over Sean Sharaf. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tafa at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Julia Polastri (1-2) taking on Cory McKenna (3-2). Polastri will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Polastri is rated at 1106 — 177 points above McKenna's 929. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Polastri throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Polastri is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Polastri has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julia Polastri over Cory McKenna. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Polastri at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Haddon (0-0) taking on Dan Argueta (1-2).

Haddon is rated at 1067 — 208 points above Argueta's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Argueta throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Argueta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Haddon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Argueta over Cody Haddon. The model gives Argueta a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Clayton Carpenter (2-1) taking on Lucas Rocha (0-1). Carpenter is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Carpenter at 991, Rocha at 1001. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carpenter throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rocha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rocha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lucas Rocha over Clayton Carpenter. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rocha at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.