UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva: Predictions & Analysis
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva lands on Saturday, April 14, 2012 in Stockholm, Sweden with 12 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Gustafsson vs Thiago SilvaLight Heavyweight | Alexander Gustafsson | Lean | 56% |
| Brian Stann vs Alessio SakaraMiddleweight | Brian Stann | Lean | 56% |
| Siyar Bahadurzada vs Paulo ThiagoWelterweight | Paulo Thiago | Confident | 65% |
| Dennis Siver vs Diego NunesFeatherweight | Diego Nunes | Toss-up | 52% |
| John Maguire vs DaMarques JohnsonWelterweight | John Maguire | Lean | 61% |
| Brad Pickett vs Damacio PageBantamweight | Damacio Page | Confident | 66% |
| James Head vs Papy AbediWelterweight | James Head | Lean | 60% |
| Cyrille Diabate vs Tom DeBlassLight Heavyweight | Cyrille Diabate | Lean | 60% |
| Francis Carmont vs Magnus CedenbladMiddleweight | Francis Carmont | Confident | 67% |
| Reza Madadi vs Yoislandy IzquierdoLightweight | Yoislandy Izquierdo | Lean | 59% |
| Simeon Thoresen vs Besam YousefWelterweight | Besam Yousef | Toss-up | 55% |
| Jason Young vs Eric WiselyFeatherweight | Jason Young | Lean | 59% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Alexander Gustafsson vs Thiago Silva
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Gustafsson (10-7) taking on Thiago Silva (6-3). Gustafsson is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Silva is rated at 1362 — 193 points above Gustafsson's 1169. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gustafsson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gustafsson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Alexander Gustafsson over Thiago Silva. The model gives Gustafsson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Brian Stann vs Alessio Sakara
The Middleweight matchup features Brian Stann (6-4) taking on Alessio Sakara (6-7).
There's a real Elo separation here: Stann at 1077 versus Sakara at 931. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: Stann is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sakara brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Stann the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Stann throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sakara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sakara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Brian Stann over Alessio Sakara. The model gives Stann a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Siyar Bahadurzada vs Paulo Thiago
The Welterweight matchup features Siyar Bahadurzada (4-3) taking on Paulo Thiago (5-7).
Bahadurzada is rated at 1086 — 275 points above Thiago's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Bahadurzada is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Thiago looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Thiago the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Thiago throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Thiago is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Bahadurzada has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Paulo Thiago over Siyar Bahadurzada. We're leaning Thiago here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Dennis Siver vs Diego Nunes
The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Siver (11-8) taking on Diego Nunes (3-2). Siver will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Siver is rated at 1214 — 167 points above Nunes's 1047. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Siver's all-rounder game against Nunes's striker approach. Siver is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nunes brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Siver throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Diego Nunes over Dennis Siver. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nunes at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
John Maguire vs DaMarques Johnson
The Welterweight matchup features John Maguire (2-2) taking on DaMarques Johnson (4-5). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
Maguire carries a modest Elo edge (897 to 841), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Maguire is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Maguire has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: John Maguire over DaMarques Johnson. The model gives Maguire a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Brad Pickett vs Damacio Page
The Bantamweight matchup features Brad Pickett (5-8) taking on Damacio Page (0-2).
There's a real Elo separation here: Pickett at 834 versus Page at 698. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Page throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Page is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Page has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Damacio Page over Brad Pickett. We're leaning Page here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
James Head vs Papy Abedi
The Welterweight matchup features James Head (2-2) taking on Papy Abedi (1-2).
Head carries a modest Elo edge (922 to 865), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Abedi throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Abedi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Abedi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: James Head over Papy Abedi. The model gives Head a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Cyrille Diabate vs Tom DeBlass
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Cyrille Diabate (4-3) taking on Tom DeBlass (0-1).
Diabate carries a modest Elo edge (862 to 824), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Diabate throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Diabate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. DeBlass has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cyrille Diabate over Tom DeBlass. The model gives Diabate a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Francis Carmont vs Magnus Cedenblad
The Middleweight matchup features Francis Carmont (6-2) taking on Magnus Cedenblad (4-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Carmont at 1167 versus Cedenblad at 1063. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Cedenblad has won 4 straight.
The style clash matters here: Carmont is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cedenblad looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cedenblad the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Carmont throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmont is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Cedenblad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Francis Carmont over Magnus Cedenblad. We're leaning Carmont here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Reza Madadi vs Yoislandy Izquierdo
The Lightweight matchup features Reza Madadi (3-3) taking on Yoislandy Izquierdo (0-1).
Madadi is rated at 1046 — 252 points above Izquierdo's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Izquierdo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Izquierdo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Izquierdo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Yoislandy Izquierdo over Reza Madadi. The model gives Izquierdo a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Simeon Thoresen vs Besam Yousef
The Welterweight matchup features Simeon Thoresen (1-1) taking on Besam Yousef (0-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Thoresen at 909 versus Yousef at 814. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Yousef throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yousef is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yousef has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Besam Yousef over Simeon Thoresen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yousef at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Jason Young vs Eric Wisely
The Featherweight matchup features Jason Young (1-2) taking on Eric Wisely (0-1).
Young carries a modest Elo edge (842 to 807), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Young throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Young is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Young has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jason Young over Eric Wisely. The model gives Young a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.