UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
Saturday, November 19, 2011·San Jose, California, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightMISS
Dan Henderson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Henderson 41%59% Rua
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -57(favors Rua)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Rua)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Henderson)
MiddleweightHIT
Wanderlei Silva won by KO/TKO (R2)
Silva 65%35% Le
LEAN
→Elo gap: +60(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Silva)
BantamweightMISS
Urijah Faber won by Submission (R2)
Faber 46%54% Bowles
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -206(favors Bowles)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Bowles)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Bowles)
WelterweightMISS
Martin Kampmann won by Decision - Split (R3)
Kampmann 34%66% Story
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -245(favors Story)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Story)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Story)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Stephan Bonnar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bonnar 40%60% Kingsbury
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -75(favors Kingsbury)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Kingsbury)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Kingsbury)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Bader won by KO/TKO (R1)
Bader 64%36% Brilz
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +117(favors Bader)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Brilz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Bader)
BantamweightHIT
Michael McDonald won by KO/TKO (R1)
McDonald 82%18% Soto
STRONG
→Elo gap: +148(favors McDonald)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors McDonald)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors McDonald)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Weidman won by Submission (R1)
Weidman 72%28% Lawlor
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +116(favors Weidman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Lawlor)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Weidman)
LightweightHIT
Gleison Tibau won by Decision - Split (R3)
Tibau 53%47% Anjos
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -24(favors Anjos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Anjos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Tibau)
BantamweightHIT
Miguel Torres won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Torres 55%45% Pace
LEAN
→Elo gap: -19(favors Pace)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Torres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.6(favors Pace)
WelterweightMISS
Seth Baczynski won by Submission (R2)
Baczynski 46%54% Brown
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -1(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Baczynski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Brown)
LightweightHIT
Danny Castillo won by KO/TKO (R1)
Castillo 51%49% Bailey
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +10(favors Castillo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Castillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Castillo)